Month: December 2023

From 1950 through 2022, a period of 73 years, the average December Santa Claus stock market rally has averaged 1.443%. However, from 12/1 through 12/15 there has been, on average, no gain. Santa seems to arrive on or about 12/16…

While the Fed kept rates unchanged, something entirely expected, it was the shift from a hawkish pause, one with a rate hike bias, as was the case after the last two meetings, to a dovish pause, a pause with a…

The CPI is designed to broadly capture changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. consumers. The largest component is housing, with a weight of 44.6%. Next is transportation at 17.2%, then food and beverages at 14.2%.…

U.S. payrolls grew a net 199,000 in November, 152,000 after accounting for previously striking workers. 199,000 is the fourth weakest number since 1/21, all of which have occurred since 6/23. Wage growth ticked up slightly despite the labor market’s continued…

The Friday File: On 12/5/23, Vice President Kamala Harris broke the almost 200-year old record for casting the most tiebreaking Senate votes at 32. The prior recordholder was Vice President James Calhoun who, during his eight years as Vice President…

While gold prices are setting nominal price records at $2,000/oz, inflation adjusted, gold doesn’t shine. As recently as 2020 it was close to $2,400/oz, and in 2011 it was almost $2,500/oz. In 1980, gold traded at slightly more than $2,500/oz,…

In 2022, US coal-related CO2 electricity generation emissions declined 7% due to an 8% reduction in coal-fired power generation. That capacity was, however, replaced by natural gas, solar, and wind such that CO2 emissions from electricity generation declined just 4%.…

After seeing volumes and profits surge during Covid, containership operators ordered new vessels totaling 26% of global container capacity just in time to see shipping volume sink. Old ships are suddenly being scrapped and overcapacity will persist for years. Maersk,…

During the 2023 Thanksgiving week, retail sales activity rose 6.3% Y-o-Y, the best weekly sales boost of the year as is almost always the case during Thanksgiving week. However, the rise in Y-o-Y sales was well down from last year’s…

The Friday File: While the number of close friends we have averages three, and the number of people we call friends is about 150 (also known as the Dunbar number), the number of people we know, including persons we see…