Month: January 2023

Totally Transitory

01/17/2023

Economists are now measuring inflation by excluding food and energy, which gets to core-inflation, and then subtracting goods, which results in core services inflation, and then shelter. The reason for removing these items is to rid the inflation data of…

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Debt Dynamic

01/16/2023

While Friday’s Treasury announcement that the debt limit will be breached on 1/19/23 is concerning, the Treasury will again employ “extraordinary measures” to keep the government functioning through early June. If the ceiling isn’t raised by then, watch out. With…

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Solidly Sober

01/13/2023

The Friday File: The Percentage of Americans over 21 participating in Dry January is 15% down from 19% last year. The decline from 2022 is probably due to there being fewer drinkers. The share of Millennials – the generation that…

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Employment Excellence

01/12/2023

Compared to 2/20, employment in professional and business services is up one million, transportation employment is up 500,000, and employment in healthcare, retail trade, information services, construction, manufacturing, financial activities, educational services and wholesale trade are also up. Employment in…

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Rural Redefined

01/11/2023

In 2010, the percentage of the U.S. population living in rural areas was 19.3%. Today, the percentage is 20%. This is not due to some Covid-induced movement. Rather, the Census Bureau has redefined the definition of an urban area from…

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Receding Rents

01/10/2023

According to CoreLogic, October rents were up 8.8% Y-o-Y, down from 10.2% in September and a peak of 13.9% in April. Zillow’s index has November rents up 8.4% Y-o-Y, down from 9.6% in October, and a peak of 17.1% in…

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Jolly Jobs

01/09/2023

December net job growth was 223,000, the weakest reading since 12/20, and wage growth pressure is clearly waning. But we have a long way to go. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, job growth is roughly double a…

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