Month: July 2022
The Friday File: While economists fail to predict recessions, and more recently the rise in inflation, physicists are worse. They cannot figure out if hot water freezes faster than cold. Seems crazy, and seems easy to test, yet physicists are…
Read MoreAccording to the UN, global population will reach 8 billion on 11/15/22. While birth rates are falling, it expects the number of humans to peak at 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s, down 500 million compared to the 2019 projection primarily…
Read MoreThe Y-o-Y increase in June CPI is 9.1%, up from May’s 8.6%, the worst reading since 11/81’s 9.6%. Core CPI is behaving arguably better, it’s up 5.9% Y-o-Y and has been falling since March, but worryingly M-o-M numbers are getting…
Read MoreGDP in 22Q1 was -1.6% annualized, 22Q2 looks to come in at -2% annualized. Yet job growth in 22H1 was superb, averaging 456K/month. How can this be? Are firms hoarding workers despite falling sales because bosses expect a mild downturn…
Read MoreJune net job growth was much stronger than expected, and well above a sustainable pace at 372,000. Moreover, the labor force participation dipped by a tenth to 62.2%. The Fed will raise the Fed funds rate by another 75bps at…
Read MoreIn early 1972, with the fed funds rate at 3%, the Fed began raising rates to quash inflation. By 11/73, the fed funds rate exceeded 10% and the economy entered a deep recession. The Fed continued raising rates ultimately pushing…
Read MoreThe US economy can currently best be described as a Schrodinger Economy. On one hand, 22Q1 GDP was -1.6%, 22Q2 is likely to come in at no better than 0%, real incomes are declining, the yield curve is flat, equities…
Read MoreThe Friday File: This July 4th 84% of the US population will be celebrating, unchanged from last year, and way up from just 76% in 2020. Independence fever was highest in 2013 when 90% celebrated. The baseline is 88%. 5%…
Read More- « Previous
- 1
- 2