Month: October 2018

The FY2018 deficit totaled $779 billion or 3.9% of GDP, up 17% from the FY2017 deficit of $666; 3.5% of GDP. While that doesn’t look bad, the details are troubling. Outlays as a percentage of GDP declined from 20.7% to…

While predicting the cause of the next recession is impossible, here are probabilities based on all recessions in the seven largest democracies since 1960. 26% of the time it was monetary policy, next came bursting of a credit bubble at…

A key reason wages for low-skilled jobs are now rising faster than for the rest of the labor force is scarcity. Since 1/1/10, there’s been a 25% rise in the number of persons with a bachelor’s degree or higher in…

The Friday File: Between 1994 and 2014, the average number of births on 9/9 was 12,301, more than on any other day. The month of September had nine of the top 10 birthdates, all of which were between 9/9 and…

While many things might cause the next recession, including geopolitical problems, struggling emerging markets due to the rising dollar, and growing non-financial corporate debt levels (to name a few), one that is more insidious is complacency. Good times lead to…

Among nations with average life expectancies of at least 70 years, per capita GDP of at least $5,000, and populations above 5 million, the USA is tied for 54th place with Azerbaijan and ahead of only Bulgaria in healthcare efficiency.…

While September employment growth of 134,000 new jobs was slightly disappointing and probably due to Hurricane Florence, the report was otherwise excellent. Upward revisions to July and August totaling 87,000 were spectacular, and the unemployment rate hit 3.7%, lowest level…

The 2018 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Americans William Nordhaus and Paul Roemer. In January, Roemer was pushed out as World Bank Chief Economist after clashes with staff and top brass. Relatedly, Peter Diamond, who won the Nobel…

The Friday File: The most used social-media site by teens today is Snapchat at 41%, followed by Instagram at 22%; just 15% say it’s Facebook. The craziest data: back in 2012, the last time this survey was administered, 49% of…

In an attempt to attract workers in a tight labor market, soothe both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, and raise payroll costs for competitors, Amazon is raising its minimum wage to $15/hour. Assuming they have 300,000 affected workers (and excluding…