Month: May 2017

April housing starts were OK. Single family starts were up 8.8% Y-o-Y, 7.4% YTD, and, somewhat surprisingly, have been flat since 10/16. Importantly, trends have emerged. Comparing 15Q1 – peak house size – to today, median and average house sizes…

Consumer spending is fine! Retail sales, that is sales at stores, restaurants, and importantly online retailers, rose 0.4% in April, the best gain in three months and sales in March were meaningfully upwardly revised. However, April non-store retail sales (which…

The Friday File: If your favorite sports team isn’t winning, don’t blame the players, coaches, and GMs, blame politicians! Turns out that the higher the income tax rate, the lower the team winning percentage. This effect is most powerful for…

While you may sneer at each mention of the 35-hour French workweek, it’s not as extreme as it sounds. It’s simply the legal maximum number of hours that must be worked before overtime is paid. Moreover, the average workweek in…

Despite a sizeable cutback in oil production by OPEC and several non-OPEC nations and a subsequent rise in price, oil prices are testing 5-month lows. The initial rise in price caused US fracking activity to increase, negating the OPEC cutback.…

While Bitcoin was first used on 1/12/09, its value remained well under $50 until early 2013 when it hit $200 for the first time and $1,100 six months later. Bitcoin then collapsed, bottoming at $200 in mid-2015. Since then, it’s…

Friday’s labor report was strong. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, its lowest level since 5/01. The broadest measure of unemployment declined to 8.6%, its best showing since 12/07, and monthly employment gains this year are averaging 185,000/month, hearty! The…

The Friday File: Transporting $10 million is easiest in 1,000 franc Swiss banknotes. They would weigh 25 lbs and fit in one briefcase. Using enough 500 euro banknotes would weigh 45 lbs and fit in two briefcases. Using US $100…

Despite a decent economy, Y-o-Y loan growth by banks in the US dramatically decelerated in late 2016. It’s partly because firms are going directly to bond markets, oil & gas firms are paying down lines of credit, and undoubtedly due…

We know 70% of households don’t itemize deductions, that there are 117 million households, and that 34% of all households (42 million) rent. Assuming all renters take the standard deduction, that means 40 million owner households take the standard deduction…