Month: May 2016

Should Britain vote to exit the EU on 6/23/16, I suspect that the pound will fall in value, UK inflation will rise and the economy will likely enter a mild recession. Depending on the magnitude of these changes, the Bank…

While April housing starts rose 6.6% M-o-M and declined 1.7% Y-o-Y, housing starts have been flat for a year. Since 4/15, the peak in monthly seasonally adjusted starts was a rate of 1.213 million in 6/15; the trough was 1.063…

The latest teeth gnashing about poor retail sales is misplaced. Retail sales weakness is due to less spending by foreigners due to the strong dollar, more online spending and more service spending. Over the last decade, spending on clothes/shoes grew…

The Friday File: The top coffee producing nation is Brazil, which harvested 6 billion lbs. in 2014. Vietnam follows with 3.6 billion, then Colombia at 1.5 billion, Indonesia at 900 million, and Ethiopia, where coffee was discovered, at 860 million.…

While it has taken 8.25 years, inflation-adjusted GDP in the 19 country Eurozone (not to be confused with the 28 nation European Union) is back where it was on 1/1/08! Among the largest nations, Germany is tops, with its GDP…

The median priced home is $220,000. Assuming 10% down and thus a $198,000 mortgage, at the current 30-year mortgage rate of 3.7%, that works out to a payment of $917/month. Add $180/month for property taxes and the total is $1,097/month…

15.6% of high school graduates do nothing. While down from the 2/14 peak of 16.9%, it’s substantially above the previous recession high of 14.8% set in 2003/2004. For whites, the current rate of 13.7% is higher than any time prior…

Friday’s Employment data was puzzling. While the economy created 160,000 jobs, it was the weakest growth since 9/15 and the labor force participation rate fell from 63% to 62.8%. But Y-o-Y wage growth increased from 2.3% to 2.5%, the 4th…

The Friday File: The most used banknote in circulation is the $1 bill featuring Washington, which accounts for 30% of all bills. The $100 Ben Franklin comes in second, accounting for 28% of all bills (probably because of drug cartel…

Q1/16 non-farm labor productivity growth fell at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of -1%; Y-o-Y productivity growth rose just 0.6%. Since the end of the recession in 6/09, productivity growth has averaged a dismal 1.3%. These weak numbers help explain how…