Month: January 2014
In the month of December, the US Treasury ran a surplus of $53.2 billion. What is remarkable is that over the past 10 years the December deficit has averaged $22.7 billion, and over the last five it’s averaged $61.7 billion.…
Read MoreDeflation is bad for three reasons. First, by reducing GDP it raises debt to GDP ratios making it harder to service existing debt. Second, once consumers and businesses expect prices to be cheaper in the future, delaying purchases makes sense.…
Read MoreWith Eurozone inflation below 1% and falling, and the money supply barely growing, the European Central Bank may have to become very creative to stave off deflation. Here’s why: while it might have authority to buy sovereign bonds, due to…
Read MoreLast Friday’s labor report showing a gain of 74,000 new jobs, when 200,000 were expected, and a decline in the labor force participation from 63% to 62.8% (a 35 year low) was, no matter how you slice it, bad. That…
Read MoreThe Friday File: Each of the last four teams to break the record as the highest scoring team in NFL history (’67 Oakland Raiders 33.4 points per game, the ’83 Washington Redskins 33.8 PPG, ’98 Minnesota Vikings 34.8 PPG, ’07…
Read MoreWhile interest rates are on the rise, so is economic growth. At this stage in the business cycle, growth has the upper hand. While rising interest rates dampen home buying activity, better growth and the concomitant increase in employment more…
Read MoreAny final nuclear agreement between the P5+1 and Iran must, at minimum, limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions to those of a civilian nuclear program with comprehensive monitoring so that any nuclear “breakout” effort would be lengthy and quickly detected. Its heavy-water…
Read MoreThe combination of November exports reaching an all-time high of $194.9 billion, the trade deficit narrowing to just $34.25 billion, its lowest level since 10/09, November’s factory orders rising 1.8% and October’s factory orders upward revision of 0.4%, and strong…
Read MoreWith small investors still largely on the sidelines, bond prices continuing to slide as interest rates rise, the number of large corporate stock buybacks declining, gold prices falling and corporate earnings expected to improve, I expect a rise in the…
Read MoreThe Friday File: The biggest physical heist of 2013 involved one thief who stole $135 million in jewels in Cannes, France as they were being delivered to a hotel for display. The next biggest theft was an inside job where…
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