Going, Going, Gone!

The Friday File: After travelling for 36 years and 12 billion miles, NASA just confirmed that on August 25, 2012 (yes 2012), Voyager 1 became the first human-made object to depart the solar system. It’s so far from earth it takes 17 hours travelling at the speed of light to send/receive signals from Voyager. To…

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Oily Business

Crude oil prices are up 6% since Syria took center stage on 8/21/13. They had already risen 15% in the prior four months due to rising demand and a 2.7 million barrels/day (bbl/d) reduction in supply in August. But traditionally, demand falls by 2.4 million bbl/d in Sept/Oct, reducing world demand to 75.9 million bbl/d.…

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Disability Disincentive

One reason the labor force participation rate is so low is the explosive growth in those receiving Social Security Disability Insurance. Since 1980, the percentage of 20-64 year olds on SSDI grew from 2.3% to 4.7%. Half the rise is due to an aging work force, an increase in the retirement age and women’s increased…

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Taper Tiger

With a drop in the labor force participation rate to 63.2%, its lowest level since 8/78, the creation of only 169,000 net new jobs in August and revisions subtracting 74,000 new jobs in June and July, it’s now a toss-up whether the Fed begins tapering in September. If they do, expect the Fed to reduce…

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Lots of Labor

The best news from the August employment report was that private payroll hours jumped 0.3%. While that seems small, had employers kept hours worked unchanged and hired more workers to do the added work, payrolls would have risen by 572,000 not 172,000. Moreover, average manufacturing worker overtime is 4.4 hours/week. The last time it was…

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Let’s Make a Deal

The Friday File: Imagine having to choose one of three lotto tickets, two of which are worthless and one of which is valuable. Now suppose one of the two tickets not chosen is removed since the host knows it’s worthless. With two tickets left, what’s your best approach? Staying with the original or exchanging it…

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Healthy Demand

Obamacare will reduce demand for employees at firms with slightly less than 50 workers and for hires wanting more than 30 hours/week of work. It’ll also reduce the supply of labor. Now, many employees work for health insurance. Once insurance becomes easily available and heavily subsidized for the poor, a major reason to work will…

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Shrinking Middle

Middle class is defined as adults with household incomes between two-thirds and twice the national median, or between $40,000 and $120,000 today. In 1971, 61% of adults were middle class, 14% were upper class and 25% were lower class. Today, just 51% are middle class, 20% are now upper class, and 29% lower class. Even…

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A Dose of Coase

Ron Coase, winner of the 1991 Nobel Prize in economics, died yesterday at 102. He was best known for his research into transaction costs and how it influences firm size, and the observation that a lack of property rights increases regulation. He argued that if transaction costs are low and property rights well defined, private…

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Laboring On

The Friday File: Looking at both federally-mandated paid vacation and holidays among rich nations, Austria ranks number one with 35 days/year, Germany and Spain tie for second with 34, followed by Italy and France at 31, Belgium and New Zealand with 30 and Ireland at 29. Canada is third from the bottom with 19, Japan…

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