Year-over-year inflation in Japan is now 0.9%. While not much, after decades of deflation, it’s good news. That said, most of the inflation is the result of higher energy and electricity prices, not wages. And higher energy costs are the result of the yen’s recent 25% depreciation against the US dollar, combined with oil being priced in dollars and Japan having to import more oil than ever post Fukushima.
Tag Archives: Economics and graphsandlaughs
Nobel Winners
In an odd choice, the Royal Swedish Academy awarded the Nobel Prize in economics to Eugene Fama, whose life’s work shows that markets are rational in the short run, to Robert Shiller, who says that markets are often irrational over long periods, and to Peter Hansen, who developed a statistical approach to study asset prices, and thus see if markets are behaving a la Fama or a la Shiller.
Debt Default
If the US defaults, short-term Treasuries, the most traded and liquid securities in the world and which often act as collateral for loans to banks and central banks, would lose their cash equivalence. This would immediately boost interest rates demanded by lenders while some lenders would refuse such collateral outright. Worse, as short-term funding is used in so many areas of the economy, the rise in rates would be pervasive.
Sudsy Sales
The Friday File: The economy is improving! Beer volume rose 1.2% in 2012, to 2.8 billion cases – that’s 210 beers/person, pushing revenues up 3.5% to $62.3 billion. This largely makes up for the 1.3% decline in beer volume in 2011. Super-premium, domestic craft and imports are fermenting heady sales, while mainstream domestics are losing steam, but more slowly than before. I must drink 209 more beers to be average.
Terrific Tax
Among the demands the Republicans have put forward to end the government shutdown is repeal of the 2.5% medical device tax which took effect 1/1/13. It is a spectacular tax because no one will change their behavior because of it. If you need an artificial hip, you will not now cancel your operation because of the small price increase. Most taxes, like the income tax which discourages work, alter behavior.
Changing Faces
By 2018, non-Hispanic whites under 18 will be less than 50% of the population under 18, with Hispanics, Asians and blacks collectively being the majority. By 2043, more than half the entire US population will be Hispanic, Asian or black and by 2060, more than half of the population over 65 will be Hispanic, Asian or black. By 2024, the white population will start declining in absolute size.
Spectacular Sailing
In a remarkable comeback, Team USA reeled in eight straight wins to capture the America’s Cup competition 9 to 8. They actually won 11 races but were docked two wins for infractions before the series began. The $300 million US entry, Oracle Team USA, which sailed at speeds of 50 mph, was financed by Larry Ellison, the world’s eighth richest man. Sadly, just one of the 11 crewmen was American.
Bold Bernanke
In a surprising but gutsy move, the Fed will not start tapering this month. There are many reasons. The most compelling; the recent rise in interest rates needed to be checked as they harm the slow recovery, Congressional hijinks over the budget and debt ceiling look increasingly worrisome, an inflation rate that is worryingly low and the opportunity to unequivocally show markets that its primary concern is encouraging growth.
Disability Disincentive
One reason the labor force participation rate is so low is the explosive growth in those receiving Social Security Disability Insurance. Since 1980, the percentage of 20-64 year olds on SSDI grew from 2.3% to 4.7%. Half the rise is due to an aging work force, an increase in the retirement age and women’s increased eligibility for SSDI. The other half is due to easier eligibility criteria and higher benefits.
Taper Tiger
With a drop in the labor force participation rate to 63.2%, its lowest level since 8/78, the creation of only 169,000 net new jobs in August and revisions subtracting 74,000 new jobs in June and July, it’s now a toss-up whether the Fed begins tapering in September. If they do, expect the Fed to reduce its Treasury purchases by just $10 billion with mortgage backed securities purchases remaining unchanged.