May
10

Seasonal Speedbump

The US economy created 266,000 seasonally adjusted jobs in April, well below the one million expected! Unadjusted, employers have created over one million jobs for three straight months. With most other labor numbers looking good, this suggests that seasonal adjustment for school, holidays, and … [Read more...]

May
07

Terrific Trail

The Friday File: The world’s longest walkable road stretches from Capetown, South Africa to Magdan, Russia. While there are bridges across rivers, there are no boat or ferry rides. The road is 13,670 miles and would take 570 days to complete assuming 8 hrs/day of walking at 3 mph. The journey covers … [Read more...]

May
06

Fannie Financing

FILE - In this July 11, 2008 file photo, a sign in front of the Fannie Mae headquarters in Washington is seen. Fannie Mae has again asked taxpayers for more money after reporting a first-quarter loss of more than $13 billion Monday, May 10, 2010.(AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, file) Fannie Mae … [Read more...]

May
05

Construction Contributions

While investment in single-family structures in 21Q1 rose 22% Y-o-Y, it totaled just $375 billion, or 1.7% of GDP, and is barely above the lows of all recessions except the Housing Bust. Conversely, in 21Q1 home improvement jumped to $325 billion, 1.5% of GDP, and has been steadily setting records … [Read more...]

May
04

Epic Economics

In a pair of trials that may dramatically alter the economics of the $150 billion/year US app market, Epic Games, the maker of the very popular game Fortnite, is suing Apple and Google after both removed Fortnight from their respective app stores after Epic encouraged users to bypass them and make … [Read more...]

May
03

Big Beatings

So far this earnings season, 87% of firms have beat analysts profit expectations, well above the normally inflated 65%. Moreover, the earnings beats have averaged 22.8%, crushing the 3.6% average since 1994. Why? Large firms have taken market share from failed small ones, and GDP is just 0.9% below … [Read more...]

Apr
30

Blazing Basketball

The Friday File: In 2001, 17% of NBA shots were threes, in 2011 it was 22%, in 2016 it was 28%, and now it’s 40%! Moreover, players have been making more of their threes since 2017 than they did from 2012-2016! In 2016, when Stephen Curry led the Warriors to the NBA championship, they ranked second … [Read more...]

Apr
29

Good Growth

GDP grew at a pleasantly fast 6.4% annualized rate in 21Q1 and is now just 0.9% below its inflation-adjusted level on 12/31/19. It will surpass that level in mid-May 2020. By contrast, it took more than three years for real GDP to fully recover in the last recession. 21Q2 and 20Q3 GDP should easily … [Read more...]

Apr
28

Redistricting Results

During the upcoming redistricting cycle, Republicans will control map drawing in 188 House districts, Democrats 73, versus a 219-44 edge in 2011. The remaining seats are in states where power is split, a commission is in charge, or states have just one seat. States losing seats: CA (for the first … [Read more...]

Apr
27

Bank Bucks

While bank earnings are way up from where they were in 20Q1, looks can be deceiving. The biggest earnings drivers have come from increases in trading, capital markets (fees from stock and bonds sales), and large releases of loan loss provisions that were built up over the past year. Regrettably, not … [Read more...]