Based on a quarterly survey of active managerial job seekers, during calendar year 2020 5% of such individuals relocated to find new employment. In 2021, the percentage fell to 4%, in 2022, the percentage declined further to 3.75%, and in 2023, and it slid to just 2.5%. The combination of super-low 30-year mortgages and probably more remote or hybrid-work arrangements make attracting top managers increasingly difficult.

Pre-Covid, income growth for the lowest income quartile was almost 5%/year, while for the other quartiles growth was 3.5%/year. By mid-2022, income growth for the bottom and second highest quartiles peaked at almost 8%/year but was nearly 6% for the other two quartiles. Now income growth is almost identical across all quartiles, ranging from 5.5% for the second lowest quartile to 4.9% for the top, suggesting labor shortages are dissipating.

One reason the US economy has performed as well as it has despite rising rates and bank lending reluctance is the rise of private debt and equity. In 2008, banks and fund managers each had $12 trillion in assets. Today, bank assets are $23 trillion but fund manager assets total $43.5 trillion. This is also why fewer firms are going public, they can relatively easily raise private investment funds.

March existing home sales slipped 4.3% M-o-M to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.19 million, the biggest M-o-M decline since 11/22. The February rise in mortgage rates undoubtedly hurt. Y-o-Y sales eased 3.7% to 4.35 million. March is now the 31st consecutive month with sales down Y-o-Y. It’s also possible that uncertainty regarding Realtor commissions has caused some transactions to be delayed. An inauspicious start to the spring selling season.

The Friday File: The first American roller coaster was a stretch of repurposed coal mine railroad track in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley in 1873. The chuch-chuch sound comes from the 1910 invention of the safety ratchet that prevents coasters from rolling backwards. Coney Island’s wooden Cyclone debuted in 1927, while Disney’s Matterhorn pioneered steel coasters in 1959, and Knott’s Berry Farm was the first to turn riders upside down in 1975.

In an early April survey of business and academic economists, the percentage predicting a recession within the next two years declined from 39% three months ago to 29%. This is the lowest percentage since 4/22 when recession chances were pegged at 28%. Better yet, just 10% expect at least one quarter of negative growth over the next 12 months, down from 33% in January. I’m also slightly more optimistic.

Pre-Covid, quarterly Treasury bond issuance, including new and mostly refinanced maturing debt, was $3 trillion/quarter. Since then, the deficit has jumped, and Treasury has increasingly relied on short-term debt to finance the government. Thus, quarterly Treasury issuance in 24Q1 was $7.2 trillion, breaking the previous 20Q2 record by a nose, and is likely to remain elevated. This and high short-term rates are quickly raising government interest expenses.

March retail sales rose a strong 0.7% M-o-M, February sales were revised up by 0.3% M-o-M, and Y-o-Y sales rose a respectable 4%. However, inflation-adjusted, retail sales have been flat since 3/21, as we shift away from goods to services. Thus, it’s total consumer spending that matters! The big winner, online sales. They rose 0.4% M-o-M and are now less than one percentage point below their 4/20 peak of 20.9%.

In 1862, President Abraham Lincoln signed a revenue-raising measure to help pay for the costs associated with the Civil War. The measure created a Commissioner of Internal Revenue and the nation’s first income tax. The tax was 3% for income between $600 and $10,000 and 5% for income above $10,000. Heeding public opposition, Congress cut tax rates in 1867 and repealed the income tax entirely in 1872.

The Friday file: The world’s thinnest watch is, for the 9th time, a Bulgari, this time the Bulgari Octo Finissimo Ultra, at 1.7 millimeters (0.0669 inches). This breaks the previous 7/22 record of 1.75mm set by the RM UP-01 Ferrari, which broke the previous record of 1.8mm set by the Octo Finissimo Ultra in 3/22. Only 20 of these watches will be made to help justify the $529,000 price.