The Friday File: The economy is improving! Beer volume rose 1.2% in 2012, to 2.8 billion cases – that’s 210 beers/person, pushing revenues up 3.5% to $62.3 billion. This largely makes up for the 1.3% decline in beer volume in 2011. Super-premium, domestic craft and imports are fermenting heady sales, while mainstream domestics are losing steam, but more slowly than before. I must drink 209 more beers to be average.
Tag Archives: Economic recovery
Wishing for Wages
While the economic recovery will soon enter its fifth year, wage growth is invisible. In part, it’s because unemployment is high, but also because more and more jobs are in leisure/hospitality and retail. These two sectors now account for 21% of US employment, yet pay just $13/hour and $16/hour respectively. Manufacturing pays $23/hour, yet employs just 9% of the workforce. Good paying jobs are being lost and not being replaced.
Where’s My Credit?
This recovery is anemic because total (household and government) debt is high and falling! Consumer credit actually declined by 2.5% in ’11 and total debt fell from 203% of GDP to 202% in ‘11; about $160,000/working age person. At the end of the ’01 recession debt was $80,000, and at the end of the ’91 recession just $20,000. Usually, in recoveries debt rises quickly spurring the economy, but not this time.
GDP for Higher
During Q3 ‘11 U.S. GDP finally exceeded the real pre-recession peak of total economic output recorded in Q4 ‘07. It took 15 quarters to offset the 5.1% decline in output during the Great Recession, 3 times the average number of quarters needed to reach the prior peak in other post-WWII recessions. The bigger problem, the number of employed persons is still 6.5 million below what it was before the GR.