While the economic recovery will soon enter its fifth year, wage growth is invisible. In part, it’s because unemployment is high, but also because more and more jobs are in leisure/hospitality and retail. These two sectors now account for 21% of US employment, yet pay just $13/hour and $16/hour respectively. Manufacturing pays $23/hour, yet employs just 9% of the workforce. Good paying jobs are being lost and not being replaced.
Tag Archives: unemployment
Anemic Recovery
Following recessions this severe, economic recoveries are usually quite robust. But not this time. Why? Chronic lack of credit kills sales, depresses investment, and hurts productivity. Prolonged levels of high unemployment erode worker skills, making it hard for the unemployed to find work, shrinking the labor-force. Most importantly, crises stunt innovation, R&D, and the efficiency with which capital and labor are used which stunts growth.
No Help Wanted
The labor market is suffering from sclerosis. While employers are no longer firing workers – the percentage of workers laid off or fired in 10/11 was lower than in ’07, before the recession – they also aren’t hiring. Similarly, few of the employed are quitting their jobs. Usually about 2% of all workers quit their job each month. Now, it’s just 1.5%. In combination, these two trends make it very hard for the young and the unemployed to find work.
GDP for Higher
During Q3 ‘11 U.S. GDP finally exceeded the real pre-recession peak of total economic output recorded in Q4 ‘07. It took 15 quarters to offset the 5.1% decline in output during the Great Recession, 3 times the average number of quarters needed to reach the prior peak in other post-WWII recessions. The bigger problem, the number of employed persons is still 6.5 million below what it was before the GR.
Unemployed and Well Slept
The Friday File: What do the involuntary unemployed do with their free time? Researchers find that about 40% of their “free” time is spent working in the home which includes cooking, doing laundry, shopping, home improvement projects, caring for elder parents etc… 30% of the time goes to sleeping longer and TV. Another 30% is spent on other leisure activities like reading and going to movies. As for searching for a new job, that takes up about 1% of the extra hours!
Brother Can you Spare a Job?
While some are unemployed by choice and some due to a lack of necessary skills, I do not think it’s that many. Here’s why. There are 14 million unemployed and 3.1 million job openings, or 4.6 jobless workers per opening. Prior to the recession the ratio was about 1.5. In only a few industries do we see wage growth and we see increases in unemployment across all ages, occupations, industries and education levels.
Payroll Problems Persist
Nonfarm payrolls rose by a profoundly dismal 18K in June, way below the 125K gain expected by economists! Making things worse, job gains in May were revised down to 25K from 54K. The unemployment rate inched up by 0.1% to 9.2%. Government employment fell by 39K. If you include discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, the unemployment rate rose to 16.2% from 15.8%! This is about as bad as anyone could imagine.
Weak in Review
Weak in Review: The latest jobless claims numbers are still troublesome. The key takeaway is that first time claims have now exceeded 400k for 10 weeks in a row and the four-week moving average is stuck at 425k. Moreover, the Philly Fed index at -7.7 along with the similar -7.8 print on the NY Empire, is consistent with a 47 reading on ISM — not exactly constructive for the once-hot industrial sector.
Excellent Employment!
Hallelujah! The economy gained 244K jobs in April! Payroll data for Feb and March were also revised up by a combined 46K! Hiring in the private sector posted the largest increase in 5 years and was broad based! Ignore the rise in the unemployment rate to 9%. The bad news; gov’t employment fell 24K, avg hourly earnings rose a trivial 0.1% to $22.95 and the workweek was unchanged. All in all EXCELLENT.
Home Equity
The fall in house prices and home equity have robbed fledging entreprenneurs of one of the most popular sources of funding; equity in their homes! This loss means fewer basement and garage start-ups in general and many fewer in the hardest hit states. As small business creates well over half of all new jobs our economy and the unemployment rate will fall more slowly as a result.