US employment peaked in 1/08 at 138.1 million. Employment then fell to a low of 129.3 million in 2/10, a loss of 8.8 million jobs. Today 46 months after the end of the recession, employment is 135.2 million, 2.9 million below the high. Assuming an optimistic 200,000 new jobs per month, a new employment high will not be reached until 6/14, 6.5 years after the start of the Great Recession.
Note: On Friday I stated that the distillery that produces Maker’s Mark was reducing the alcoholic content of that product by 7%. After a huge outpouring from loyal constituents, the firm decanted, I mean recanted. Sorry for the stale information.
During Q3 ‘11 U.S. GDP finally exceeded the real pre-recession peak of total economic output recorded in Q4 ‘07. It took 15 quarters to offset the 5.1% decline in output during the Great Recession, 3 times the average number of quarters needed to reach the prior peak in other post-WWII recessions. The bigger problem, the number of employed persons is still 6.5 million below what it was before the GR.
The July jobs report showed 117K new jobs, but the report also showed no rise in temporary help, no jump in hours worked, no bump in overtime. And, annualized wage growth of 2.8% in July was less that the 3.4% inflation rate. While the unemployment fell to 9.1% it’s because 193K left the labor force! The share of the pop now working is just 58.1%, 1.3% LOWER than when the recession ended in 6/09.
37% of all net new jobs created since the recovery began were created in TX. TX has added 265K net jobs. NY was 2nd with 98K, PA 93K. TX is also one of 4 states that has more jobs now than when the recession began; the others are ND, AK and DC. Over the last 20 years TX has grown 3.3% vs. 2.6% for the US. TX stands out for its free market and business friendly climate.
Latest job data for Jan showed job openings dropped 161K after a 45K decline in Dec and are at lowest level since 7/09. New hires also fell 193K and are down in 6 of last 7 months. The fact layoffs fell 158K in Jan offers little consolation but explains why jobless claims have been trending down much faster than employment growth has been rising.
70 Words on the Economy. Daily.