Taper Tiger

With a drop in the labor force participation rate to 63.2%, its lowest level since 8/78, the creation of only 169,000 net new jobs in August and revisions subtracting 74,000 new jobs in June and July, it’s now a toss-up whether the Fed begins tapering in September. If they do, expect the Fed to reduce…

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Want a Job?

Since 3/12 the unemployment rate has fallen 0.6%, and the labor-force participation rate (LFPR) has fallen by 0.5%. If by 3/14 the LFPR falls another 0.5%, it would take only 107,000 new jobs/month to get the unemployment rate down another 0.6%. But if by 3/14 the LFPR returns to where it was on 3/12, it…

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The Unparticipation Rate

The latest employment report was great, but a little perspective, please. The labor force participation rate is now 63.7% it lowest level since 5/83! (The all-time high was 67.3% in 3/00). Worse, since the recession ended in 6/09, rather than rising, the LFPR has continued to fall from 65.7% to its current anemic rate of…

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