EARLY EXPECTATIONS

It’s still early, with partial data available only through January, but 25Q1 GDP estimates are tracking as low as -2.8%. Consumer spending shrank, the advance trade deficit skyrocketed to -$153.3 billion, pending home sales are at their worst level in decades, consumer/business confidence has tumbled, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen for seven straight weeks, a government closure 3/15 is possible, and expectations are suddenly for three Fed rate cuts!