The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom


HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT

02/05/2011

If you were to pick just 1 item out of yesterday’s jobs report that accurately depicts the labor market, given the inconsistent messages, it would be the Household employment # on a payroll and population adjusted basis. It came in…

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TOO BIG TO FAIL

02/04/2011

Neil Barofsky, the Special IG for TARP put it well in his latest report: “perhaps TARP’s most significant legacy, the moral hazard and potentially disastrous consequences associated with the continued existence of financial institutions that are ‘too big to fail.’…

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ISM REPORTS GROWTH!

02/03/2011

The monthly Institute of Supply Management Report on Business (ISM) is a survey based index of more than 300 manufacturing firms that tracks 11 dimensions of activity across 18 Industries. Readings below 50 indicate recession. Value above 50 indicate growth.…

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MORE ON Q4 GDP

02/02/2011

Q3 saw a boost to GDP due to inventories so the Q4 reversal must be seen in that light. Monday’s personal income & spending report gave details on how ’10 ended. Real personal consumer expenditure (PCE) spending rose 0.4% MoM…

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CONSUMPTION DRIVEN GDP

01/31/2011

While 3.2% GDP growth in Q4 is excellent it was driven entirely by consumption which makes up 70% of GDP. The other 30% of the economy fared poorly in Q4 essentially stagnating (a puny 0.2% annualized growth rate). So while…

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GOOD NEWS

01/28/2011

New home sales spiked 17.5% MoM in Dec, eclipsing the 3.5% median expectation. But, there’s always a but, the gain was led by a 70% jump in new home sales in the West. Every other region was flat. So all…

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DRY BULK

01/27/2011

The Baltic Dry Index measures the cost for shipping dry bulk. This price can fluctuate wildly because supply of large cargo vessels is tight & inelastic. It takes 2 years to build a new ship & excess ships can’t be…

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LOSING LONDON

01/26/2011

On the Data Front: December consumer spending surprised to the high side at 0.6% (consensus was 0.3%) and oil is down from its lofty heights on talk of increased supply coming out of Riyadh. Gold is also down based on…

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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE?

01/26/2011

26 I think consumers felt better as ‘11 got underway. According to the latest Conference Board survey the index came in better than expected in Jan. rising to 60.6 from 54 in Dec. But, the Univ. of MI Consumer Confidence…

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Bond Market Message

01/25/2011

Bond markets are sending a strong message! That short term interest rates are higher in Canada than here is testament to the relative strength of their economy. The fact that their long rates are lower than ours suggests their long…

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