Archive for January 2025

The Friday File: After peaking mid-last decade at 91.5%, the percentage of shots saved by goaltenders has steadily declined and last year reached a 19-year low of 90.3%. Players are taking 10% fewer shots, most of which are easy to save, and instead are making more lateral cross ice passes, forcing goalies out of position.…

While just a week old, $9 congestion pricing is having the desired effect in NYC. Cars entering NYC south of 60th Street fell 8% compared to the average January workday from 2022-2024. But that small decline has drastically reduced travel times: through the Holland Tunnel by 65%, the Lincoln Tunnel by 39%, along Canal Street…

Looking at a graph of yields on US Treasurys, one is immediately confronted with the fact we are now in the sixth year of the third Treasury Great Bond Bear Market (GBBM) since 1790. The first GBBM was from 1899 to 1920. The second commenced in 1946 and terminated in 1981, and the current GBBM…

The PCE has, since 2000, been the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. There are several key differences between it and the CPI. The PCE includes things you consume but don’t buy. Thus, healthcare is 16% of the PCE but 7% of CPI. Also, PCE basket updates are much timelier, and the PCE eschews imputed prices. Since…

Net December employment growth blew past expectations with a rise of 256,000 jobs, the largest rise since 3/24. Moreover, the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% and Oct/Nov revisions were insignificant. This is evidence that the labor market has tightened and may be gaining steam. With the Trump administration about to take the reins and concerns…

The Friday File: I am frequently asked about books to read so here are a few recommendations that have withstood the test of time. Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, The Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson, World Order by Henry Kissinger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes by Charles Kindleberger, The Myth of the Rational…

Since 1874, a period of 151 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of 9.4%. The median return is between 0%-10% and the modal return, the return that is most common, is between 10%-15%. For 2025, the consensus predicts 14% growth (that’s the modal return!), and get this, not once has the consensus ever…

Y-o-Y home price appreciation, according to the Case-Shiller National Index, was 4.2% in October, down from 4.6% in September, and 5.2% in August. It’s now been slowing Y-o-Y for seven straight months; appreciation is returning to its pre-Covid norm. As a result of slowing appreciation, buyers adjusting to higher mortgage rates, and slowly improving inventories,…

Many economic pundits are excited that the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a key manufacturing index, jumped to 49.3 (anything under 50 is contractionary) reaching its second-best reading since late 2022. Hold on to the corded kitchen telephone. It’s up because EV buyers are racing to purchase before Trump eliminates buyer subsidies, and importers and exports are…

From 1999-2007, median family wealth was $50,000. From 2008 through 2014 it doubled to $100,000, where it remained through 2018. From 2019 through 2022 it vacillated substantially but nonetheless rose to $125,000. However, starting in 2023 through the end of 2024, because of rising home prices and stellar equity gains, median wealth doubled to $250,000,…