Month: November 2024

BETTER BUDGETING

11/12/2024

The FY24 budget deficit was $1.8 trillion, 6.4% of GDP. Keeping the debt-to-GDP ratio flat requires the deficit not to exceed nominal GDP growth. Assuming that’s 4%/year, the deficit shouldn’t exceed $1.2 trillion in FY25, a decline of $600 billion…

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CUT CONSTRAINTS

11/11/2024

While strongly desired, reality will constrain Republican tax cutters. Trump’s 2016 victory came with a 47 seat House majority, this time it’s maybe 11. In 2016, the deficit was 3.1% of GDP, it’s now 6.1%, and the national debt was…

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WINNING WORK

11/08/2024

The Friday File: While the median age of Nobel Prize winners is 55, it can take years for the career-defining work for which they are cited to be recognized. Chemists are in their mid-forties when their winning paper is published,…

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FISCAL FITNESS

11/07/2024

Portions of Trump’s 2017 tax cut have already sunset, others will expire in 2025. Extending the unexpired sections will cost $5 trillion through 2034 but will have no impact on GDP or inflation as they will simply extend existing policies.…

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PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS

11/06/2024

While the polls were once again disturbingly poor in telling us how voters planned to vote, prediction markets that rely on the wisdom of markets to offer odds on a candidate winning were materially better. The average odds from five…

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PRESIDENTIAL PROMISES

11/05/2024

While VP Harris has a bachelor’s degree in political science and economics, and former president Trump graduated with a degree in economics, you would be hard pressed to know it from their campaigns. Both candidates haven’t just demoted economic principles…

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WEAKENING WORK

11/04/2024

October employment growth was 12,000, the worst gain since 12/20. However, the Boeing strike reduced employment by 46,000 and the hurricanes undoubtedly also hurt. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% but only because the labor force declined by 220,000.…

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NIFTY NOODLES

11/01/2024

The Friday File: In 2023, Americans spent $2.7 billion eating 5.1 billion servings of instant noodles, good enough for sixth in the world, and a per capita consumption of an impressive 15.2 servings. The U.S. remains well behind #1 China…

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