Archive for November 2024

The Friday File: Economists have recently found that the rise of recreational marijuana laws (RML) over roughly the past decade has resulted in an increased number of grocery store trips that involve the purchase of junk food including snacks, cookies, and candies, presumably due to the munchies. RML is also temporally associated with decreased exercise…

The cost of Thanksgiving dinner has declined again! The inflation-adjusted cost of dinner for 10 peaked in 2022 at $67.84. It fell to $62.76 in 2023 and $58.08 in 2024. The decline was led by turkey, which decreased 6.14%, sweet potatoes, which slid 26.20%, and whole milk which eased 14.17%. To avoid weight gain, enjoy…

For all the talk of a slowdown in U.S. electric vehicle sales, U.S. drivers purchased 346,000 battery-powered vehicles in 24Q3, a 5% Q-o-Q rise and an 11% Y-o-Y increase. EVs now comprise 9% of new car sales, the highest level on record. Tesla easily retained its EV sales crown by delivering 167,000 vehicles. However, its…

October existing home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.96 million, up 2.9% Y-o-Y. This is the first year-over-year increase since 7/21! The rise is a result of very weak sales in 10/23 and lower mortgage rates in August/September when contracts were signed. Sales remain near their lowest level in decades.…

The Friday File: Now that college athletes can earn money for their name, image, and likeness (NIL), wow are they starting to rake it in. In NCAA Division I men’s basketball, the average income of the starting five is now $3.3 million. For women’s basketball it’s $730,000. In football, the average income of starting players…

In 24Q3, household debt rose by $147 billion and now stands at $17.94 trillion. However, income increased faster in 24Q3 and now stands at $21.80 trillion. Therefore, the debt-to-income ratio continued its decline and is now 82%, meaningfully below the 86% pre-pandemic level, and is back where it was in 2003. The debt-to-income ratio peaked…

There are 2.3 million civilians working for Uncle Sam. 70% are in military/security related agencies. Veteran’s Affairs is the largest cabinet-level department/military branch with 486,522 employees, it’s the hospitals. Homeland Security follows at 222,539, then Army with 221,0437, Navy at 216,537, Air Force at 168,505, and Defense with 156,803. Education is the smallest with 4,425.…

In 2018/2019, President Trump imposed tariffs of $380 billion on thousands of imported products. The results: reduce GDP by 0.2%, the capital stock by 0.1%, employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs, raise core-goods inflation by about 4% in the first year, zero thereafter, and increase direct tax collections by $250/household/year. Non-trivial but not large. The…

While October retail sales came in slightly hot at 0.4% M-o-M, Vs. 0.3% expected, it was the huge upward revision to September retail sales from 0.4% M-o-M to 0.8% M-o-M that stole the show. This will necessarily lead to an upward revision of 24Q3 growth that now sits at 2.8%. The U.S. consumer is alive…

The Friday File: Sales of “greatest hits” compilation albums, such as the Eagles Greatest Hits 1971-1975, America’s all-time best-selling album, have plummeted as streaming and resulting playlists have altered how we listen to music. Such sales had a recent peak in 2011 at 3.75 million but sank to 1.34 million by 2023. Moreover, such albums…