Archive for May 2024

The Friday File: On 5/12/24, Kami Rita Sherpa, Sherpa is a last name, age 54, scaled Mt. Everest for the 29th time. He has been regularly climbing Sagarmatha since 1994. Lhakpa Sherpa holds the record for the most ascents by a woman at 10. The same weekend, Kenton Cool (also a mountaineering guide) of Britain…

In theory, stock splits boost the number of shares and reduce the price/share, leaving shareholders financially no better off. But reality is different. Since record keeping began, stocks that split have, on average, risen 25.4% during the first 12 months after the split versus 11.9% for other stocks. More recently, stocks that split have handily…

Despite higher premiums, reduced coverage, higher deductibles, and leaving entire states, over the last decade insurers paid more in homeowners insurance claims than they collected in premiums. Recently, this has been meaningfully exacerbated by rising reinsurance rates that insurers pay for insurance. To wit, in 2023 insurers lost money on homeowners’ coverage in 18 states,…

While April core capital expenditures, defined as nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, rose 0.3% M-o-M, March was revised down to -0.1% M-o-M. Moreover, Y-o-Y capex is now growing just 0.5% Y-o-Y, has been barely positive since 6/23, and inflation-adjusted has been consistently negative since 1/22. That said, historically recessions don’t occur unless Y-o-Y nominal capex…

The Friday File: Originally known as Decoration Day, as Americans decorated Civil War soldiers’ graves on 5/30, Memorial Day became an official national holiday, and its date was made the last Monday in May, effective 1971. This year, 43.8 million Americans are expected to travel, up from 42 million last year, and close to the…

In 2019, the number of S&P 500 firms mentioning inflation during their earnings calls averaged 129/quarter. In 20Q1, it collapsed to 58, but then steadily rose through 22Q2 when it reached 412. Since, it’s steadily declined and in 24Q1 is likely to be 230. While that’s above the 10-year inflation-mention average of 180, it will…

Since 1/22, the daily change in bond yields on days the Fed releases meeting minutes (which happens eight times/year) versus all other trading days is insignificant. For the 2-year Treasury, on minutes release days the average absolute daily change is slightly over five bps, on all other days it’s almost six. And that’s the most…

In 2013 and 2014, the number of weather/climate disasters exceeding $1 billion inflation-adjusted was 10. In 2017, the number hit 19, in 2020 it was 22, and after declining to 20 in 2021 and 18 in 2022, the number reached a record 28 in 2023. The years 2020-2023 have been four of the worst five…

It took the Dow Jones Industrial Average 873 trading days to go from 30,000 on 11/24/20 to 40,000 on 5/16/24. The largest contributor to the increase was Goldman Sachs, which contributed 1,500 of the 10,000-point gain. Microsoft and Caterpillar both added over 1,250 points. The worst performers were 3M, Disney, and Nike, each of which…

The Friday File: Drumheller, Alberta’s attempt to set the record for the largest gathering of people dressed as dinosaurs, failed due to high turnout. While a Guinness World Records adjudicator was present and counted over 3,000 people, they all had to stay in the designated area for one minute after being counted but many wandered…