Month: April 2019

In 2005, sales of drop-tops peaked at 344,000, 2% of sales. During the recession sales collapsed and haven’t recovered. In 2014, sales were 124,000 and are on pace to hit just 86,000 this year, half-a-percent of total vehicle sales. Sales…

GDP 19Q1 GDP came in at a remarkably strong 3.2%; don’t be deceived. Growth was pushed up by an unsustainable surge in inventories, a huge one-time jump in state and local government spending, and a drop in imports precipitated by…

The Friday File: As of today, James Holzhauer has won 17 straight regular Jeopardy! games and in the process has amassed a staggering $1,275,587. He holds the top seven single-game winnings records, the highest being $131,127. At $60,000, he holds…

In 2005, the share of the labor force working in non-standard arrangements was 10.9%. In 2017, despite the “sharing economy” the percentage declined to 10.1%! Within non-standard arrangements, the percentage of independent contractors fell from 7.4% to 6.9%, on-call workers…

Over the past few decades new firm creation has declined, as have job gains attributable to new firms. Similarly, profit margins have risen, especially for the top 10% of global firms. Why? A substantial decline in knowledge diffusion from new,…

March housing starts eased to 1.139 million, the weakest data since 5/17, down 14.2% compared to 3/18, and down 9.7% YTD. Part of the apparent softness is because starts were particularly strong through 5/18. However, it is still somewhat surprising…

First time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 192,000 in the week ending 4/13, their lowest level since 9/69, while the less volatile four-week moving average fell to 201,250, the lowest level since 11/69. When unemployment claims hit their cyclical…

The Friday File: In 1995, 2% of couples met online, today it’s 39%. Meeting in bars went from 19% to 27%. Other methods have significantly declined. Meeting through friends has fallen from 33% to 20%, meeting through coworkers has dropped…

While hardly surprising, the IMF cut its forecast of 2019 global economic growth to 3.3% from 3.5% in January; 3.7% in October. A key reason; world trade, which had been growing at 5%/year for a long time, slowed to 3.8%…

In March, Chinese lending activity hit its highest level in a decade, the money supply is now growing at its fastest pace in a year, and exports have completely recovered from their dismal December. Thus, the stock market is up…