Archive for February 2018

BP expects global demand for oil to peak in 2035 at 110 million bbl/day, up from 98 million today. Shell expects peak oil in 2025, while Chevron and Exxon offer no opinion. The Saudi energy minister expects peak oil demand to be 120 million bbl/day in 2043, while the head of the International Energy Agency…

The Fed continues to suggest it will stick to its gradual path of interest rate tightening despite oncoming massive fiscal stimulus. This makes sense. What better environment is there to see what impact running the economy hot will have than in one with low inflation and low inflation expectations? If the Fed miscalculates and inflation…

In 1/18, sales of existing houses came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million. That’s 3.2% lower than 12/17 and 4.8% lower than 1/17, the steepest Y-o-Y decline since 8/14. Y-o-Y inventory declined for the 32nd straight month, and at 1.52 million, is the lowest January level since record keeping started in 1999.…

The Friday File: Based on the 12-year Chinese zodiac cycle, this year is the year of the dog. And, while that may not sound propitious, since 1950 the S&P has averaged a 15.3% return in these years, better than any of the other 11. The goat is next best at 14.9%, with the tiger in…

Even with unemployment near 20-year lows, labor is weak. In 1952, work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more totaled 470, the most ever. In 1959, the number of lost work days from such strikes peaked at 60.85 million. As recently as 1974, there were 424 strikes, and in 1970 lost work days totaled 52.76 million.…

While the US desperately needs better infrastructure, the current White House plan will not work. The proposal relies way too much on already financially pinched state and local governments. Moreover, rising interest rates make borrowing more costly, lower personal income tax rates make purchasing municipal bonds less advantageous to the wealthy, and deductibility caps on…

January housing starts came in at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 1.326 million, their second highest level since 8/07. Single-family starts are also at their second-best level since 2007, 10/07 to be precise. Overall, starts are up 7.3% compared to 1/17 and 18.1% compared to 1/16; good growth! While multifamily starts are up 6.7% Y-o-Y,…

Since 1960, the president that ran the largest average deficit during his time in office was Obama, with an average of 5.7% of GDP, Reagan follows at 3.8%, George H.W. Bush at 3.7%, and Kennedy at 3.3%. By contrast, Clinton ran the smallest average deficit at 0.9%, followed by Nixon at 1% and Johnson at…

The Friday File: The amount of the greenhouse gas carbon-dioxide produced per kilogram (2.2 lbs) of boneless beef is 26.61 kilograms. Lamb follows at 25.58; both are ruminants. Each kilogram of pork embodies 5.77 kilograms, a kilogram of chicken, a paltry 3.65 kilos, the average kilogram of fish, 3.49 kilos, a kilogram of eggs results…

Outstanding household debt rose $193 billion in 17Q4 to a record $13.15 trillion, 67% of GDP, down from 87% of GDP at the peak in 2009. The delinquent share of total debt is 3.12%, down from 3.19% in 17Q3. Mortgage debt grew by $139 billion and now totals $8.88 trillion but remains 4.4% below the…