Posts Tagged ‘Graphsandlaughs’
Work? No Thanks
While the February unemployment rate eased from 7.92% to 7.74%, 40% of the fall resulted from a decline in the civilian labor force of 130,000 due to both the weak economy and retiring Boomers. As a result, the labor force participation rate hit a new cyclical low of 63.5%, a level last seen in 9/81…
Read MoreNumber Games
The Friday File: Despite being spectacularly counterintuitive, Benford’s Law states that leading digits (the number 8 in 8,456) are unevenly distributed. Benford found that one is the leading digit 31% of the time, two 17% of the time, three 12.5%, four 10%, five 8%, six 6%, and the other numbers 5% each. Antitrust economists are…
Read MoreFisher at the Fed?
With Bernanke’s term at the Fed up in January, Obama will have to name a successor. That person should be Stan Fisher. In addition to having an outstanding record as Governor of the Bank of Israel, he’s a skilled diplomat, regulator and politician and a brilliant economist. Moreover, with the UK snaring Bank of Canada…
Read MoreBye Bye Bankruptcy
In a sign of reduced economic stress among households and firms, total US bankruptcy filings are down. They fell from 104,537 last February to 82,285 this February, a fall of 21%. Consumer filings declined from 99,378 to 78,611 while commercial filings declined from 5,159 to 3,674. Personal bankruptcy filings peaked in 2010 at 1.54 million,…
Read MoreCashless Cyprus
While small, the Cypriot bank bailout is causing heartburn across the Eurozone. At its peak, the banking sector had assets eight times GDP and now needs $13 billion. If Cyprus borrows the money, their debt-to-GDP ratio becomes unsustainable. Writing down sovereign debt won’t work because it’s held by the banks and forcing a haircut on…
Read MoreTough Tax
While imposing a financial transaction tax (FTT) on purchases of stocks, bonds, options and derivatives will reduce trading and may raise revenue — if traders don’t move their business elsewhere which is usually the case — it also increases volatility, exactly the opposite of what is intended. Turns out, where FTTs have been imposed, they…
Read MorePapal Probabilities
The Friday File: With a papal conclave fast approaching, Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana is the leading contender with odds of 11-4 that he leaves the conclave as pope. Next is Archbishop Angelo Scola of Italy at 3-1 and Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada at 6-1. The problem Turkson faces is that less than 10%…
Read MoreBuilding Stock
In another sign of good news for home building, TRI Pointe Homes’ IPO was the sector’s first since 2004. The firm raised $233 million selling 13.7 shares at $17 on 1/31/13. Today’s close, $18.45. And, it looks like Taylor Morrison will soon follow as it’s currently filing papers with the SEC in a deal worth…
Read MoreMortgage Monopoly
During the 1990s, the percentage of new mortgages guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie averaged about 44% and that number rises to about 55% if you add FHA and VA loans. During 2005 and 2006, those numbers fell to historic lows of 38% and 40% respectively. Now, due to a lack of private capital those numbers…
Read MoreSequester Symptoms
Despite sequestration calling for $110 billion in annual cuts, the full impact will not be felt until after 2015. Outlays will be reduced by $44 billion in FY 2013, by $89 billion in 2014, and $102 billion in 2015. Full year 2013 GDP will fall by about 0.7%, with q2 GDP falling by about 1.25%!…
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