Hot Rod

The Friday File: Last month a virtually pristine 1954 Mercedes-Benz W196R racing car sold for $29.6 million, shattering the previous record of $16.39 million for the most expensive car ever sold. The car was driven by the late Argentine racing great Juan Manuel Fangio, who won 45% of the races he entered and five world…

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Banking on Leverage

A proposal to increase capital ratios for the biggest financial firms to 6% for bank subsidiaries and 5% for bank holding companies while good, presents a huge loophole. A $150 billion bank would need $7.5 billion in capital. But if it puts $50 billion in a BHC, the subsidiary would have to hold $6 billion…

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Boys and Girls

The Friday File: In the US there are 105 boys born for every 100 girls. Older mothers give birth to more girls. By age 40, women give birth to 104 boys for every 100 girls and with each successive birth the probability of having a girl increases. By the seventh birth there are 103 boys…

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Declining Delinquency

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac report that the rate at which single family mortgages that are three months in arrears or in foreclosure declined to 2.77% and 2.79% respectively in June, down from all-time highs of 5.59% and 4.20% respectively in February 2010. While the rates are down 50% and 33% respectively, at this pace…

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Week that Was

With the July consumer sentiment number rising to 85.1, it’s now at its highest level since 7/07, and way up from its all time low of 55.3 set in 11/08. Add to that a sharp rise in non-defense durable goods orders, a rise in home prices, and a tiny rise in first-time unemployment claims, entirely…

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Ignoring the Problem

Senator Warren’s proposal to make student loans available at just 0.75% actually exacerbates the problem. Cheap loans will increase the number of college applicants, allowing universities to raise prices, like builders did during the bubble because credit was easy. The underlying problem is the rising cost of tuition. A solution: force schools who accept cheap…

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Economic Do-Over

The 14th comprehensive benchmark revision to all GDP accounts from 1929 forward will be released later this week. The revisions will probably show faster recent GDP growth bringing it line with improved employment numbers in 2012, higher labor productivity growth, higher household savings rates and higher personal incomes. In short, households will be found to…

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Fly With Facts

The Friday File: While flying seems risky compared to automobile travel, seems is the operative word. For the decade ending in 2008 passenger fatalities per 100 million miles were 0.72 for automobiles, 0.05 for buses and trains and 0.01 for airlines. That means flying in a plane is 72 times safer than riding in a…

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Financial Repression

While the Chinese government must rebalance its economy away from export and investment-led growth towards household consumption-led growth, the problem is that the combination of low wages, low interest rates on savings and an undervalued currency all conspire to keep the household share of Chinese GDP spectacularly low, constraining household spending. Reversing all these policies…

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Finance Failure

While the House and Senate work on competing bills to fix our broken housing finance system, where 91.2% of new mortgages are government backed, reform is years away. A Congress that can’t pass a budget, an immigration bill, or an Agriculture bill, and that is hurtling towards yet another ruinous debt ceiling fight, certainly doesn’t…

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