Petroleum Periodicity

Like many other commodities, the price of oil exhibits a strong seasonal pattern. Since 1986, oil prices start the year low and bottom in mid-February. From there, prices steadily rise and peak in late September at 15% to 20% higher than February’s. Prices then steadily fall during the last quarter of the year. Year to date, prices are up 70%, but if historical trends hold should have already peaked.