Credit Default Swamps

Based on my calculations, credit default swaps are trading as if Greece has a 70% chance of defaulting, 50% for Ireland, 40% for Portugal and 30% for Spain. Both Greece and Ireland are paying over 80% of their export revenues towards external debt payments which totally unsustainable. After Portugal, Spain is next, then maybe Belgium. This story is as contained as the Asian crisis was limited to Thailand 12 years ago.