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With short-term interest rates near zero and inflation very mild, real short-term interest rates (nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate) are slightly negative. To boost investment spending and the economy, the Fed should push real interest rates further into…
After rising by 28% in 2012 and 18% in 2013, the 923,000 housing starts in 2013 were the sixth lowest amount since record keeping began in 1959, with only the prior five years being worse. As for single-family starts, despite…
While the economic news of late is pretty good, if you must worry about the economy, chew on this: the non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index of new orders is shrinking for the first time since July 2009. Moreover, the backlog of…
The Friday File: Children conceived during heat waves have higher literacy rates, lower disability rates, higher incomes and more years of schooling than children conceived during normal temperatures. It’s probably because sexual activity declines in hot weather. However, the wealthy…
In the month of December, the US Treasury ran a surplus of $53.2 billion. What is remarkable is that over the past 10 years the December deficit has averaged $22.7 billion, and over the last five it’s averaged $61.7 billion.…
Deflation is bad for three reasons. First, by reducing GDP it raises debt to GDP ratios making it harder to service existing debt. Second, once consumers and businesses expect prices to be cheaper in the future, delaying purchases makes sense.…
With Eurozone inflation below 1% and falling, and the money supply barely growing, the European Central Bank may have to become very creative to stave off deflation. Here’s why: while it might have authority to buy sovereign bonds, due to…
Last Friday’s labor report showing a gain of 74,000 new jobs, when 200,000 were expected, and a decline in the labor force participation from 63% to 62.8% (a 35 year low) was, no matter how you slice it, bad. That…
The Friday File: Each of the last four teams to break the record as the highest scoring team in NFL history (’67 Oakland Raiders 33.4 points per game, the ’83 Washington Redskins 33.8 PPG, ’98 Minnesota Vikings 34.8 PPG, ’07…
While interest rates are on the rise, so is economic growth. At this stage in the business cycle, growth has the upper hand. While rising interest rates dampen home buying activity, better growth and the concomitant increase in employment more…