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Pollution Problems
The amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide emitted in 2011 rose by 3% (a billion tons) from 2010 to 38.2 billion tons. Of the planet’s top 10 polluters, only the USA and Germany reduced emissions. China emitted 10 billion tons, up from nine billion in 2010, followed by the USA at 5.9 billion, India at 2.5,…
Read MoreWork? No Thanks
While the February unemployment rate eased from 7.92% to 7.74%, 40% of the fall resulted from a decline in the civilian labor force of 130,000 due to both the weak economy and retiring Boomers. As a result, the labor force participation rate hit a new cyclical low of 63.5%, a level last seen in 9/81…
Read MoreNumber Games
The Friday File: Despite being spectacularly counterintuitive, Benford’s Law states that leading digits (the number 8 in 8,456) are unevenly distributed. Benford found that one is the leading digit 31% of the time, two 17% of the time, three 12.5%, four 10%, five 8%, six 6%, and the other numbers 5% each. Antitrust economists are…
Read MoreFisher at the Fed?
With Bernanke’s term at the Fed up in January, Obama will have to name a successor. That person should be Stan Fisher. In addition to having an outstanding record as Governor of the Bank of Israel, he’s a skilled diplomat, regulator and politician and a brilliant economist. Moreover, with the UK snaring Bank of Canada…
Read MoreBye Bye Bankruptcy
In a sign of reduced economic stress among households and firms, total US bankruptcy filings are down. They fell from 104,537 last February to 82,285 this February, a fall of 21%. Consumer filings declined from 99,378 to 78,611 while commercial filings declined from 5,159 to 3,674. Personal bankruptcy filings peaked in 2010 at 1.54 million,…
Read MoreCashless Cyprus
While small, the Cypriot bank bailout is causing heartburn across the Eurozone. At its peak, the banking sector had assets eight times GDP and now needs $13 billion. If Cyprus borrows the money, their debt-to-GDP ratio becomes unsustainable. Writing down sovereign debt won’t work because it’s held by the banks and forcing a haircut on…
Read MoreTough Tax
While imposing a financial transaction tax (FTT) on purchases of stocks, bonds, options and derivatives will reduce trading and may raise revenue — if traders don’t move their business elsewhere which is usually the case — it also increases volatility, exactly the opposite of what is intended. Turns out, where FTTs have been imposed, they…
Read MorePapal Probabilities
The Friday File: With a papal conclave fast approaching, Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana is the leading contender with odds of 11-4 that he leaves the conclave as pope. Next is Archbishop Angelo Scola of Italy at 3-1 and Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada at 6-1. The problem Turkson faces is that less than 10%…
Read MoreConstruction Employment
Despite a boom in residential construction activity, construction employment growth has remained lackluster and is up just 100,000 from the trough in early 2011. This is because residential building declined by more than residential employment resulting in value added/worker falling from about $80,000/year to about $60,000/year as employers kept their best workers. But with total…
Read MoreBuilding Stock
In another sign of good news for home building, TRI Pointe Homes’ IPO was the sector’s first since 2004. The firm raised $233 million selling 13.7 shares at $17 on 1/31/13. Today’s close, $18.45. And, it looks like Taylor Morrison will soon follow as it’s currently filing papers with the SEC in a deal worth…
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