70 Words
Wishing for Wages
While the economic recovery will soon enter its fifth year, wage growth is invisible. In part, it’s because unemployment is high, but also because more and more jobs are in leisure/hospitality and retail. These two sectors now account for 21% of US employment, yet pay just $13/hour and $16/hour respectively. Manufacturing pays $23/hour, yet employs…
Read MoreHappy Housing
Between 1998 and 2002, before the housing market went haywire, total housing starts averaged 1.65 million units and the population of the US averaged 282 million persons. Over the next five years the US population will average about 320 million. As a result, I expect housing starts to steadily rise to a plateau of about…
Read MoreMcIndex
The Friday File: Based on the idea that exchange rates and prices eventually adjust to make the same thing equally priced the world over, the Big Mac Index was created. In Norway, a Big Mac is $7.84, in Switzerland $7.12 and Brazil $5.64, all overvalued currencies. But it’s just $2.03 in South Africa and $2.57…
Read MoreThe Three Rs
If Congress accepts President Obama’s proposal to expand preschool programs it would go against the vast majority of research that finds programs like Head Start deliver few if any lasting benefits. That said, if we do it, we must devote most program money to the youngest children so that we prevent achievement gaps from forming…
Read MoreSugar High
To prevent defaults by sugar processors that borrowed $862 million under a government price-support system, the USDA may purchase 400,000 tons of sugar to prop up prices. Sugar has fallen 18% to 21.03 cents/lb since the loans were made last October. Higher sugar prices would naturally lead to higher food prices. Yeah! The world price…
Read MoreCash Crunch
The Cyprus fiasco shows us two things. First, countries that don’t issue their own currency simply cannot guarantee bank deposits as they have no control over their monetary policy. It also shows that monetary unions cannot survive bank runs. The upshot, there will now be a calls for a euro-wide bank regulator (like the FDIC)…
Read MoreStrong Week
Retail sales jumped a strong 0.4%, even after subtracting high gas prices, higher building material prices, and autos and groceries. Industrial production was up and is nearing its pre-recession peak and the four-week moving average of initial weekly unemployment claims is at its lowest level in five years. Inflation continues to be benign. The only…
Read MoreLeapin’ Leprechauns
The Friday File: On St. Patrick’s Day we drink 1% of all beer consumed in America, which equals 1.62 pints per/person, so drink up! 34.5 million Americans claim Irish ancestry which is seven times the population of Ireland. The total value of Irish imports to the US is $39.4 billion and it takes 40 pounds…
Read MoreGovernment as Insurer
Our government runs the FDIC to protect us from bank failures, the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation to protect our pensions, Medicare, Medicaid and Obamacare to protect our health, FHA, Fannie and Freddie to guarantee our mortgages, Social Security to protect our income in old age, crop insurance, flood insurance and on and on. I only…
Read MoreMinimal Migration
Youth unemployment in Spain is 56%, in Greece it is 58%, while in Germany it’s 8%. This should cause a mass influx of youth from these peripheral countries to Germany. Surprisingly, it’s not. Between 1/12 and 6/12 just 3,900 Spaniards and 6,900 Greeks made their way to Germany. Here in States, large unemployment rate differences…
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