Posts by Econ70

The Powell Fed has made it clear it will continue purchasing Treasuries and MBS for the foreseeable future and keep short-term rates at rock bottom levels, but will not counter rising long-term rates. This is because financial conditions are loose, and liquidity is plentiful. Moreover, the Fed sees inflation as a transient phenomenon. Finally, slightly…

In 2020, motor-vehicle crashes killed 42,060 people, up (yes, up) 8% from 2019. Moreover, vehicle miles driven dropped 13% last year. This means that the rate of road deaths per million miles driven rose 24%, to 1.49, the biggest annual increase since data collection began in 1924. Experts opine that riskier driving on emptier roads…

February’s job growth of 379,000 and an upward revision of 177,000 to January’s number is good. Restaurants & bars added 289,000 jobs, while recreational outlets, hotels and medical offices added 97,000, reminding us that Covid-19 drives this recovery. All, however, is not peachy. The labor force participation rate declined, as did the length of the…

The Friday File: Recently completed SoFi stadium in LA, at $5.5 billion, is the most expensive stadium ever built. Next most costly, Metlife Stadium (where the NFL’s Jets and Giants play lifelessly) at $2.03 billion. Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium follows at just $1.9 billion. Of the 30 most costly arenas ever built, 21 are in…

Existing inventory of residential homes is currently just 1.04 million units, or 1.9 months of supply, both record lows. It is partly due to insufficient homebuilding over the past decade, Boomers aging in place, Covid-19 preventing sellers from listing, huge demand by buyers to escape dense cities and decamp to suburbia and more space, low…

The US savings rate jumped from 13.4% of disposable income in December to 20.5% in January. This means only 20 cents/dollar the government provided in the $600 stimulus checks was spent. This suggest most of the next round of stimi money will probably also be saved, making one question the wisdom of sending out another…

Through 20Q2, the value of US farmland was $2.6 trillion, and investment grade bonds (BBB rated debt and higher) were valued at $6.4 trillion. That pales compared to Treasury bonds which were worth $19.9 trillion, and US commercial real estate at $20.4 trillion. Equities were almost double that at $37.2 trillion, but top spot goes…

Biden’s proposed American Rescue Plan is large, almost 10% of GDP, and is a short-term, one-off event. Other similar historical events include the Korean War, at 4% of GDP, and, as far as the US is concerned, WWI at 13%. Neither of those events led to sustained inflation; inflation rose and then dissipated. Given that…

The Friday File: Though wildly unproductive in the amount of meaningful legislation passed, the just finished 116th Congress resulted in members of Congress posting 1.57 million tweets and 680,000 Facebook posts, up from 1.03 million and 484,000 in the 114th. In the 114th there were 10 members with at least one million followers; there were…

In 2020, Idaho enjoyed the highest percentage of net migration, with 70% inbound and 30% outbound, a net of 40%. SC followed at 28%, then OR at 26%, AZ and SD at 24%, and AL, FL, NC, and TN at 20%. AR was 10th at 18%. CA at -18%, CT at -26%, IL at -32%,…