Percent Probabilities

Since 8/1/22, the probability of the Fed raising the Fed funds rate by 75bps vs. 50bps has moved from a low of 20% on 8/2/22 to a high of 80% on 8/5/22 after release of the hot July employment report. There it remained until 8/10/22 when, following the weaker CPI report, it fell to 40%, where it remained through 8/18/22. Since, it’s steadily risen and closed last week at 70%.