Increasing Inflation

As measured by the CPI, October inflation rose 6.2% Y-o-Y, the fastest pace since 1990 and the fifth month in a row above 5%. Similarly, core-inflation rose 4.6% Y-o-Y, its largest move since 1991. Inflation is rising rapidly because demand has fully recovered while supply hasn’t, causing supply-chains to break down. With Christmas shopping upon us and solid employment growth feeding demand, inflation probably gets worse before it gets better.