Archive for January 2024

While the Fed didn’t lower interest rates after today’s meeting, it suggested that cuts are on the way. However, by reiterating that he wants to see continued declines in inflationary pressures before the Fed cuts rates, Powell gave markets no indication that cuts were imminent and simultaneously has provided the Fed with strategic ambiguity as…

At present, the Fed funds rate is 5.375% and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is 2.6%, making the real Fed funds rate, Fed funds minus inflation, 2.775%. Dating back to 1954, the median real Fed funds rate has been 2.8% when the Fed starts cutting rates after a rate rising cycle. Moreover, inflation continues to…

The amount of money in all passively managed (index) U.S. mutual funds and ETFs recently surpassed $13.3 trillion. That exceeds, for the first time, the amount in actively managed mutual funds and ETFs at $13.2 trillion. The amount in passively managed U.S. equity funds surpassed the amount of money invested in actively managed equity funds…

The Friday File: The most visited entertainment venue of any type or size for the CY2023 was London’s O2 arena with 2.4 million tickets sold, followed by Mexico City’s Foro Sol Stadium with 2 million tickets sold. In third, NYC’s Madison Square Garden with 1.6 million, and the largest gross at $223 million, then Denver’s…

The U.S. economy grew by an unexpectedly strong 3.3% in 23Q4, and growth for the year was 3.1%, well above expectations and the dismal 0.7% in 2022. Credit belongs to consumers who were unrelenting in their spending, charging, borrowing, and buying-now-paying-later. The other major growth driver was government spending. As for 2024, government spending will…

December existing housing sales slid to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.87 million, the lowest level since 8/10 and the end of the second round of ill-fated congressionally enacted first-time homebuyer incentives. Excluding that, 12/23 was the worst month since late 2008. 2023 sales were 4.09 million, the lowest since 1995, down from 5.03…

For pre-Covid year ending 2/20, interest payments totaled $550 billion and the average interest rate on all outstanding U.S. Treasuries was 2.4%. Interest payments and the average interest rate paid both bottomed out for the year ending 1/22 at $320 billion and 1.55%. For CY2023, interest payments were $750 billion and the average rate was…

Recent data show boosting capital investment in public schools raises student test scores and nearby home prices. Conversely, investment in basic school infrastructure such as HVAC or the removal of pollutants to improve student health/safety boosts test scores but not house prices. Lastly, increased investment in athletic amenities, new land, and buses boosts home prices…

The Friday File: In 2023, of the 100 most watched broadcasts, NFL football accounted for an astonishing 93! Moreover, of the remaining seven sports, three were college football and one was the Super-Bowl Lead-Out (a coveted slot immediately following the Super-Bowl). The other three were the Academy Awards, the Thanksgiving Day Parade, and the State…

In 1981, the median age of a first-time home buyer was 29, and the average age of a repeat buyer was 36. In 2001, the median ages were, respectively, 32 and 45. In 2022, during the Covid pandemic, and after two decades of steadily rising averages ages, they were 36 and 59. Last year there…