Archive for December 2023

I want to take this moment to wish everyone a great, risk-adjusted 2024. May it be a year of low unemployment, high wage gains, world peace, deep sleep, unbridled joy, love, health, falling inflation, lower interest rates, and a soft landing. My resolution is to buy a better crystal ball and improve my forecasting. Lastly,…

While the cost of gasoline has fallen from a high of $5.01/gallon in 6/22 to $3.07/gallon now, the differential between regular and premium, the premium ‘premium’ keeps rising. In 1994, the premium was $0.20/gallon, where it remained as recently as 2006. By 2016 it was $0.40/gallon, by 2019 it was $0.60/gallon, and now it’s $0.91.…

While the equity bull market has been unstoppable, it looks unusual. 72% of equities in the S&P 500 have underperformed the index. This is the highest total since at least 2000. 2020 was the next worst year when slightly over 60% underperformed. Within the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, except for tech where 39.7%…

National home prices rose 0.65% M-o-M in October and 4.8% Y-o-Y, according to the Case-Shiller Index. “October” is a three-month average of August, September, and October closing prices, so there is some lag in this otherwise excellent index. For the second month in a row, Detroit is tops with a Y-o-Y gain of 8.1%, followed…

The Friday File: Last night, Detroit’s NBA Pistons lost to the Utah Jazz for their 25th straight loss. Their last win was on 10/28/23. They’re now one loss shy of tying the NBA single-season record shared by the 2010/11 Cleveland Cavaliers and 2013/14 Philadelphia 76ers. Worse, unlike those two teams, this team wasn’t designed to…

Freddie Mac reported that the October single-family delinquency rate was 0.54% and Fannie Mae reported the rate at 0.53%, both well below pre-pandemic lows and on par with the delinquency rates observed pre-Housing Bust. During Covid the rate peaked at 3.3% during 8/20. Conversely, Freddie Mac reported that the October multifamily delinquency rate is 0.26%,…

The percentage of adults in the Greatest Generation cohort who planned to take on debt to finance holiday spending, hardly a necessity, was under 5%. For Baby Boomers the percentage was higher at 14%. For Gen X the percentage was an elevated 22%, and for Millennials it was a surprisingly high 47%, larger than any…

Between 8/12 and 7/20, used car prices were stable, but starting in 8/20, used car price inflation skyrocketed. For the year ending 7/21 inflation was a stunning 41.4%. However, by 7/22 Y-o-Y inflation was just 6.5%, and since 11/22 prices for all used vehicle types have declined. Compacts decreased the most, 11.3% Y-o-Y, while pickups…

Since peaking in 3/20, the price of institutional-quality commercial real estate has declined by an average of 22%. The biggest decline has been in office space, which has seen prices decline 35%, followed by apartments which are down 30%. Over the past year, prices eased 10% and all property classes lost value except malls where…

The Friday File: In 1969, just 12% of Americans supported legalizing ganja. That percentage quickly jumped to 28% by 1977 and remained at that level for 20 years. Since then, the percentage has steadily risen. 34% in 2001, 50% in 2011, 66% in 2018, and 70% in 2023. A majority of all political and ideological…