Archive for October 2023

Exxon’s recent announcement to buy Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion is the largest corporate transaction this year, Exxon’s largest deal since its late 1990s $75 billion merger with Mobile, and the largest oil-and-gas deal in decades. It’s a bet on oil and the belief it will persist for decades, and on the Permian Basin,…

The tax gap, the sum of failed payments through non-filing, underreporting and underpayments, is rising. In 2020, it is estimated to be $601 billion and in 2021, $688 billion. During the 2017-2019 period, the gap averaged $550 billion and $496 billion for the 2014-2016 period. For CY2021 the IRS expects to bring in $63 billion…

While September CPI rose 3.7% Y-o-Y, unchanged from August, it’s up from 3.2% in July and 3% in June. However, core inflation rose 4.1%, down from 4.3% in August, its lowest reading since 9/21, and the 11th decline in the past 12 months. But the Fed’s 2% inflation goal remains distant, and the Fed won’t…

From 1/16 through today, the average interest rate on newly issued junk bonds has been 5.99%. While there were brief rate spikes to 10% in early 2016 and early 2020, they were short lived. Now things are different. Rates first crossed 9% in mid-2022 and have remained there since, with the current rate at 9.23%.…

The 2023 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Claudia Goldin, the third woman to win the award since it was first awarded in 1969 and the second in the last five years. Her groundbreaking research is focused on female labor market outcomes, including the changing role of working women over time, the wage…

September payrolls rose by a surprising 336,000 and July and August were revised up 119,000. Moreover, job growth was widespread, the participation rate is rising, and wage growth slowed to 4.2% Y-o-Y and to an annualized rate of 3.4% over the last three months, a rate commensurate with near 2% inflation. Another rate hike is…

The Friday File: 11% of Americans have one tattoo and 22% have more than one. 38% of women have at least one, while 27% of men do. There are no major differences by political party, or whether you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community. Similarly, 33% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have a…

On a Y-o-Y basis, the Freddie Mac Home Price Index, which includes only loans purchased by Freddie and Fannie and includes appraisals, was up 4% in August, versus 3% in July. Y-o-Y appreciation peaked in 7/21 at 19.1% and annual appreciation bottomed out at 0.9% in 5/23. The four states that have seen the biggest…

High rates may finally be having an impact. August data showed M-o-M housing starts down 11.3% to their lowest level since 6/20, the housing index down sharply M-o-M for the second month in a row, and new home sales weakening 8.7% M-o-M, the biggest decline since 9/22. Existing housing sales slipped to their lowest level…