Archive for March 2023

The Friday File: To reduce the national debt by $100 billion, the Interior Department is selling naming rights to the Liberty Bell to Taco Bell. Henceforth, the bell will be the Taco Liberty Bell. Relatedly, the Lincoln Memorial will soon be renamed the Lincoln-Mercury Memorial. In DC, the Wheaton subway station will be the Cream…

In January, for the seventh month in a row, M-o-M home prices declined. While this is the longest streak since 2012, the good news is prices declined just 0.2%, the second smallest decline since this streak began. Nationally, prices are up 3.8% Y-o-Y, the smallest growth rate since 12/19. Relatedly, after peaking in early 2022…

In 1992, three million U.S. passports were issued, and 18 million Americans, 7% of the population, had one. In 2006, 12 million were issued, and 70 million persons had a passport, 23% of the population. In 2019, 21 million passports were issued, but in 2020 just 12 million were. In 2022, however, a record 22…

In 22Q3, 22Q4, and 23Q1, the percentage of banks tightening lending standards for residential mortgages was low and flat at about 2%. Auto loans are a different story. After also holding at 2% in 22Q3 and 22Q4, the percentage tightening jumped to 18% in 23Q1. As for credit cards, 19% were tightening lending standards in…

As of 12/31/22, the Deposit Insurance Fund held $128.2 billion or a reserve ratio of 1.27% of all FDIC insured bank deposits. As recently as 10Q4, the fund had a negative balance due to bailouts during the 2008/09 recession. In 2019, the fund’s reserve ratio was 1.375% but declined due to massive Covid-induced savings. The…

The Friday File: The most ethical and honest profession is nursing. 29% of American consider them to be very highly honest and ethical and 50% consider them highly ethical and honest. Doctors follow at 17% and 45%, and pharmacists at 14% and 44%. At the other end, telemarketers are the worst at 1% and 4%,…

After every scheduled Fed meeting to make potential changes to the Fed funds rate, a press release is provided. 30 minutes later there’s a presser. When Bernanke and Yellen were Fed heads, markets responded identically to the press release and the presser. It was that way for Powell pre-Covid. Since Covid, the market response to…

In a move largely anticipated, today the Fed boosted the Fed funds rate by 25bps, and strongly implied that the peak rate is no more than 25bps away, suggesting maybe one more hike. However, in a nod to current conditions the Fed removed the phrase “ongoing increases in the target rate” and replaced it with…

In the rush to safety during the week preceding the Credit Suisse failure, the biggest gainers among commodities included silver, up almost 10%, and gold, up about 6%. The biggest decliners were crude oil, down over 10%, gasoline, down about 6%, and copper, down almost 4%. Bitcoin was a huge gainer, up almost 40%, and…

The Fed raises the Fed funds rate to tighten both financial conditions and lending standards. They in turn result in reduced lending and investment, which leads to slowing economic activity, and usually a recession. Since the SVB debacle, financial conditions and lending standards have quickly tightened, and by the equivalent of a staggering 150bps, more…