Archive for January 2023

Existing home sales fell 1.5% M-o-M in December, the 11th straight monthly decline, and declined to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of just 4.02 million. Y-o-Y sales fell 17.8% Y-o-Y to 5.03 million. Fortunately, the sales decline is likely over. December’s decline was small and reflected contracts signed in October and November when rates were…

The U.S. economy grew 2.9% in 22Q4, down slightly from 3.2% in 22Q3. In 2022, GDP grew 1%, a pleasant surprise given negative growth in 22H1. However, stripping out inventory changes, net trade, and government spending to get at the underlying sustainable growth trend, GDP grew an anemic 0.2% in 22Q4. The labor market remains…

The Friday File: While the first text message was sent on 12/3/92, it took until 2005 for the number of SMS/MMS messages sent in the U.S. to exceed 100 billion, probably because they cost $0.10/text. Then they became free, and the number sent zoomed to one trillion in 2008 and peaked at 2.4 trillion in…

If the debt limit is not increased, the amount of tax increases or spending cuts required to stay under the existing debt limit this year would be $1.5 trillion and would be $14 trillion over the next decade. Relatedly, in 1979, even though it was purely accidental, a default so spooked investors, it raised U.S.…

The Index of Leading Economic indicators fell again in December, this time by 1%, the tenth consecutive monthly decline, with the monthly declines generally worsening over time. Moreover, with data going back to 1970, the last seven times the index has fallen this much, even if the decline was slower, a recession followed. I am…

Home price declines in December are unsurprising, what is surprising is the size of the decline we are seeing. For the four years ending 12/21, the December price declines from the peak in that same year ranged from -7% in 12/18 to -0.7% in 12/20. In 12/22 the decline was 11.3%. Remember, the big 2018…

In 1965, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers was 38.6 hours, close to the mythical 40-hour workweek. It’s declined ever since, we are wealthier. In 1975 it was 36 hours, in 1985 it fell to 34.9, in 1995 34.3, and by 2005 33.8 hours/week! It has since leveled off and in 2022 was…

The Friday File: As recently as 2004, 90% of US households had a landline phone. By 2008 it was 80%, by late 2010 it was 70%, and by mid-2013 it was 60%. In mid-2015, landlines were in just 50% of households, and by late 2018 the percentage was down to 40%. By the end of…

Recent data have eliminated any doubts that the U.S. manufacturing is in a recession, with the Empire State manufacturing index now at recessionary levels. Moreover, nationwide industrial and manufacturing production have both declined by over 0.5% for two months in a row, and capacity utilization is falling quickly, from 80.2% in April to 77.8% in…

In 2022 China’s population declined from 1.413 billion, to 1.412 billion, a decline of a million. This is the first since a famine in the early 1960s. This time, however, the decline will continue for the rest of the century. Worse, 20% of China’s population is already over 65. By 2100, China’s population is expected…