Archive for November 2022

Due to rising prices, the maximum size of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conforming loans is now $726,200, and in high-cost areas a mind-numbing $1,089,300. If the argument is that this boosts affordability, it’s dead wrong! Raising limits allows more people to qualify for a fixed number of houses, and that reduces affordability. Instead, raid…

There are six regional Federal Reserve Bank monthly surveys of economic conditions. They are put out by the Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond banks. At present all six are in contractionary territory. Since 1969, and before this most recent occurrence, this has happened on 10 occasions, and a recession has followed…

October retail sales sank by 0.5%, the first decline since May. This is the result of the weak real estate sector, sinking exports, and the weight of China’s bizarre zero-Covid policy. At present Covid cases are breaking records daily, and the number of high-risk cities is almost 180, and represent 60% of GDP, well above…

Despite many economic shocks, I’m thankful that the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, supply chains are unsnarling, the stock market always recovers from bear markets, interest rates are up, making interest income easier to come by than any time since the Housing Bust, Covid deaths are near their all-time low, tech layoffs give…

With mortgage rates dipping last week by 24bps to 6.9%, the largest decline since July 2022, and home prices trending down since peaking in June, first-time mortgage applications spiked a pleasant 4.4% W-o-W for the week ending 11/11/22. Still, they remain down 39.9% Y-o-Y. As for refinancing, because rates are still so high, activity fell…

The Friday File: With the World Cup beginning Sunday, here are my odds of victory for the top nations. Brazil 5/1, Argentina 6/1, France 7/1, England 9/1, Spain 9/1, and Germany at 11/1, and the US at 100/1. As for the tournament’s top goal scorer, Harry Kane of England is my pick at 8/1 followed…

While October retail sales rose 1.3% M-o-M and 8.3% Y-o-Y, these numbers are not inflation-adjusted. After inflation, retail sales have completely flat-lined since 3/21. What is much more interesting is that during 3/21 retail sales were $28 billion/month or 13% above their pre-Covid trend and at present remain $18 billion/month, or 8% above trend. Even…

Strong demand for ultra-low sulfur diesel, combined with reduced global production, has resulted in U.S. diesel inventories, measured in days of supply, being at their lowest level since 2008. Moreover, U.S. refiners have increased diesel exports from 25% to 30% of domestic production to take advantage of higher foreign prices. Additionally, new global marine vessel…

In 22Q3, net export growth contributed 2.8 percentage points to GDP. Since overall GDP grew 2.6%, absent strong net export growth GDP would have been slightly negative. Real exports increased 14.4% during 22Q3 while real imports declined 6.9%. However, with the U.S. dollar surging in value, the U.S. trade deficit widened from -$65.7 billion in…