Archive for May 2022

Since 1/1/22, the 30-yr mortgage/10-year Treasuries spread widened by three quarters of a point. Why? The Fed announced that it will be reducing its balance sheet and they were a non-interest rate sensitive buyer. Volatility, be it actual or implied, rose substantially and that can cause prepayment which hurts investors. Also, the primary/secondary spread widened…

The Friday File: Through 2020, the level of wealth needed to join the top 1% of the population in a nation was highest in Monaco at $7.9 million. The US was third globally and tops in North America at $4.4 million. Singapore was Asia’s #1 at $2.9 million; in Australia it’s $2.8 million. Argentina was…

Prior to the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014, new automobile sales in Russia were at a rate of about 200,000/month or 2.5 million a year. After the annexation and the imposition of some sanctions by the West, which meaningfully reduced Russian living standards, vehicle sales slid to about 125,000/month or 1.5 million/year. In March…

Y-o-Y CPI inflation eased to 8.3% from 8.5% in April, the first decline since 8/21, but the decline was tiny. Worse, while core-inflation, which excludes food and energy, slid from 6.5%, to 6.2%, M-o-M it rose 0.6% from 0.3% in March! Inflation has probably peaked, but the rise in core suggests inflation will not decline…

Since 2012, consumer credit has risen $15-20 billion/month. Non-revolving credit, which includes student and auto loans, accounts for two-thirds of the monthly rise and revolving credit, which consists of credit-card accounts, comprises the rest. Since 11/21, consumer credit growth has averaged over $30 billion/month, in February it was $37.7 billion, and March $52.4 billion, with…

The economy created a whopping 428,000 jobs in April despite a very tight labor market, suggesting good growth. However, the labor force participation rate eased slightly, probably to be soon reversed, and more puzzling, wage growth rose just 0.3% M-o-M and is rising at an annualized rate of just 3.7%, half the rate of inflation…

The Friday File: In a new study, researchers find dog breed is responsible for only 9% of variations in dog behavior. Physical traits were more closely linked to breed type with ear shape having the closest connection. Howling was the behavioral trait most connected to breed particularly in beagles, bloodhounds, and Siberian huskies. Genes for…

In 2022, crypto hacking has been occurring at the rate of one hack/week, the same pace as in 2021. The difference, since late last year, the amounts stolen have risen. Since August, hackers have made off with $2.9 billion in crypto currency. In all of 2021, they stole $3.2 billion. It seems hackers exploit new…

In March, the number of job openings hit 11.55 million, the highest level ever, while the number of unemployed persons was 5.95 million, meaning there are 1.94 jobs/job seeker, staggering! With so many openings, the number of quits (all of whom get another job) set a record at 4.536 million; 3% of those employed. In…

Between 1970 and today, US automobile fuel efficiency roughly doubled for both cars and light trucks. During the same time the US population increased by 54% and the number of vehicles on the road grew by 141%. Moreover, there has been a steady shift away from cars to vans, SUVs and pickups. That shift alone…