Archive for March 2022

In the US, Covid-19 is making its way from pandemic to endemic, as resistance to Covid and its increasingly infectious new variants rises. Conversely, in China the problems are worsening. Their zero-tolerance approach worked only as long as Covid-19 was expected to either go away or remain virologically unchanged. The more infectious variants are escaping…

Prior to Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Russia exported 5 million bbl/day of oil, 5% of world consumption. The Saudis could boost production by 2 million bbl/day and the UAE by 1 million. However, neither shows any inclination of doing so. US frackers could boost production, but they are moving deliberately slowly. The last major oil player,…

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine now entering its second month and the attendant devastation and reconstruction costs growing hourly, the west must hold Russia responsible for humanitarian assistance, reparations, and eventually the rebuilding of Ukraine. The easiest way, tap into the $350 billion in available (but inaccessible by Russia) foreign reserves held by the…

Since 1983, there have only been six quarters in which the yield on the 2-year Treasury has risen by more than one percent including the current quarter! In four of the six cases, the rise barely exceeded one point. Only in the current quarter and during one quarter back in mid-1980s did the rise meaningfully…

The Friday File: In 2019, 3.46 million persons in the US played pickleball. In 2020, that number increased to 4.2 million and in 2021, 4.8 million, a staggering average annual growth rate of 17.8%, or 38.7% over two years, making it the fastest growing American sport. Moreover, it’s growth is accelerating. Between 2015 and 2018,…

In 1965, 1984, and 1994, the Fed raised rates to cool an overheating economy and a recession didn’t ensue. Unfortunately, now consumer confidence is crumbling but more importantly, the yield curve is almost flat, inflation is high and rising, unemployment is microscopic, and real interest rates are deeply negative. Rates will have to rise substantially,…

At its peak in 2013, 13.5 million marriages occurred in China. The number has since steadily fallen and in 2021 7.6 million weddings occurred. Since 2002 the number of persons 22-31 has fallen from 223 million to 163 million. Moreover, within that cohort the number of men exceeds the number of women by 17.5 million.…

For the 14 years ending 2021, only once did a majority of large-cap stock-picking (LCSP) mutual funds outperform the S&P 500, and that was in 2009, and only 53% outperformed the S&P 500. Last year was a particularly bad year, just 15% of LCSP mutual funds outperformed. Last year the average return of all the…

The current Covid-19 surge in Hong Kong and in China is a potential supply-chain disaster. China’s vaccines offer very limited protection against Omicron, few persons have natural immunity due to China’s increasingly outdated zero-tolerance policy, and China has few hospital beds and thus cannot handle a large Covid-19 wave without massive deaths. Employing mRNA vaccines…

The Friday File: For the week ending 2/23/22, the most popular game was Candy Crush Saga with 40% of persons having played it, including 48% of women and 33% of men. Angry Birds follows at 33%, with 35% of men and 31% of women playing. 18% play chess, 14% enjoy Fortnight, and 13% engage with…