Archive for November 2021

From 7/21 through 10/21, real personal consumption steadily rose from an annualized rate of $13.65 trillion to $13.88 trillion, a roughly $200 billion rise. Simultaneously, real disposable income steadily shrank from $15.74 trillion in July to $15.43 trillion, a decline of roughly $300 billion. How? Savings rates sunk from 10.6% in July to 7.3% in…

Rather than raising rates to fight inflation, Turkish President Erdogan is lowering them in an idiotic effort to drive growth by weakening his currency. It’s already fallen 40% this year, and annual inflation is minimally 20%. A weaker currency helps borrowers who borrow in lira, exporters who need no imported raw materials, and construction, but…

The Friday File: In 2008, the USPS and UPS each delivered about 3.5 billion packages in the US while FedEx delivered almost 2 billion, a total of almost 9 billion, or 30 packages/person. In 2020, the USPS delivered slightly more than 7 billion, UPS 5.5 billion, Amazon 4 billion and quickly rising, and FedEx about…

While turkeys don’t fly, their cost are soaring. The price of an 8- to 16-pound frozen turkey is $1.35/lb. up 27% Y-o-Y, largely due to frozen bird inventories being down 30% from their 2016-2020 5-year average. Accordingly, the American Farm Bureau reports that a Thanksgiving feast for 10 with sweet potatoes, rolls, a vegetable tray,…

President Biden reappointed Chairman Powell to a second four-year term as Fed Head. Simultaneously, he promoted Lael Brainerd from Fed Governor to Vice Chair. With these titles, both will enjoy easy Senate confirmation. President Biden still has three more positions to fill on the seven-member Board of Governors. Through those hires he will placate his…

In 20Q1, mailed credit-card solicitations totaled 931 million. They collapsed to just 352 million in 20Q2, but by 21Q3 recovered and hit 940 million. Better yet for consumers, cash-back card offers hit 1.11% during 21Q2 and 21Q3, their highest level since at least 2010, while miles/points offered rose to 1.2/dollar spent, their best level in…

The Friday File: An NBA basketball’s diameter is between 9.43 and 9.51 inches. The hoop has a diameter of 18 inches. A ball hitting the center has roughly 4.25 inches between the edge of the basketball and the hoop. Shots three inches off center go in 74% of the time. If off four inches the…

During the 1980s, federal payments to individuals including Social Security and Medicare was 10% of GDP. From 1990 till the Housing Bust it was about 12%. During the Bust it hit 15%, but quickly fell and was 14.5% on the Covid eve. It then quickly jumped to 20%, a rise of 5.5% or $1.2 trillion!…

During 2/20, the unemployment rate was 3.5%. There were 5.7 million unemployed persons and the labor force, composed of those working and those looking for work, was 164.5 million. During 10/21, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, composed of 7.4 million unemployed individuals and a labor force of 161.4 million. Since Covid-19, the ranks of the…

In a sign of perhaps peaking inflation, annual wage growth declined from 4.2% to 4.1% in October, the first decline since 4/21, immediately prior to the recent dramatic run-up in inflation. Moreover, the decline was widespread, extending to hourly workers, service workers, and most critically those that switched jobs, the primary driver of recent wage…