Archive for October 2021

This past Wednesday, Star Trek’s Captain Kirk (William Shatner) went where almost no man has gone before, space, in a convergence of science fiction and science. At age 90, Shatner became the oldest person in space, eclipsing the record set in July by 82-year-old Wally Funk, who remains the oldest woman in space. Accompanying Ms.…

During the Housing Boom peak of 7/2006, it took 42% of median household income to cover mortgage payments on a median-priced house. That percentage bottomed at 26.9% in 1/2013 and peaked at 32% in 11/18. In 2019 and 2020, the Fed lowered rates, dropping the ratio to just 28.6% in 8/2020. As of 7/2021, that…

This past August, 2.9%, or 4.27 million employees quit their jobs. This eclipsed the previous record high, dating back to 2000 when record keeping began, of 2.8% in April! In leisure and hospitality, the number quitting was 971,000 or 6.4%! That means 1-in-16 people in this sector quit in August. In retail it was 721,000,…

US employers added a disappointing 194,000 seasonally adjusted jobs in September. Worse, the unemployment rate declined because 183,000 persons left the labor force, it’s now 3.1 million people smaller than pre-Covid-19. Fortunately, July and August were collectively revised upwards by 169,000, and the workweek surged from 34.6 hours to 34.8. While employer demand is strong,…

Earlier today, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to David Card, Joshua Angrist, and Guido Imbens. This was an inspired decision! Card is one of several economists to systematically use natural experiments to better understand real world phenomena, including the impacts of minimum wage and immigration on employment. Angrist and Imbens’ methodological leaps have…

The Friday File: In the sport of Speedgolf, Lauren Cupp is the world’s fastest female. In this sport, the score is the sum of strokes plus time. Recently, she set a new world record of 122:48. That’s a combination of a 1-under par 72, plus an 18-hole playing time of 50 minutes and 48 seconds,…

Since the inflation we are experiencing appears likely to linger somewhat longer, calling it transitory may no longer be justified. Rather, what about ephemeral? Expansionary monetary policy is coming to an end and will become contractionary by late 2022. Similarly, fiscal policy has become contractionary, and starting in 21Q2, began reducing GDP by 2.5%/annum, the…

Absent a debt ceiling increase, the US will begin running out of money by mid-October. One solution, a $1 trillion coin made by the Treasury and deposited at the Fed. Presto, a trillion dollars! The problem – this has the President conducting monetary policy (done only by the Fed) to solve fiscal policy (the domain…

Over the last eight months, Covid-19 vaccination rate disparities between racial and ethnic groups, no matter how defined, have disappeared. However, gaps reflecting political affiliation have widened precipitously. At present, among those 18 and over, 92% of Democrats, 68% of Independents and 56% of Republicans have been vaccinated. This suggests attitudes towards vaccinations are now…

From the dotcom bust in 3/01 to the Housing Bust in 1/08, household savings rates steadily fell from 6% to just 3%, of course house prices were skyrocketing. From the Housing Bust through 12/14, savings rates rose to 8% and remained there until Covid-19. Now, after bouncing wildly for 14 months due to massive government…