Month: September 2021

While 21Q3 GDP estimates keep getting lowered due to the Delta variant, 21Q4 estimates are being raised somewhat as the Delta variant pushes some spending from 21Q3 into 21Q4. Overall, 2021 GDP is likely to come in at 5.75%, lower…

If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, the Fed could ameliorate some of the worst impacts. It could offer to buy unlimited amounts of defaulted Treasuries, preventing panic selling. It could similarly sell some of its Treasury stock that is not…

Between 1959 and 2021, the number of male students for every 100 women fell by 62%! Thus, by the conclusion of the 2020/21 academic year, women were 59.5% of college students, a new record. Moreover, after four years of college…

The biggest sources of economic tail risk through 21Q4 are, in order of concern, a material rise in inflation, a market taper tantrum like 2013, a new and worse Covid-19 variant, the frothy stock market deflating, and souring relations vis-a-vis…

The Friday File: For the year ending 5/31/21, Nevada had the most legal sports wagering at $14.6 billion, resulting in $910 million in revenue and $61.4 million in taxes. NJ followed with a handle of $14.4 billion, $982 million in…

Despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting committee expecting slower growth this year than they did when they met in June, they strongly signaled that they plan to begin tapering their monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as early…

With debts exceeding $300 billion, 2% of Chinese GDP, Evergrande’s likely Thursday bankruptcy won’t be pretty. But it isn’t a short-term Lehman moment. Chinese banks are in good shape and can absorb losses, and if some can’t, Beijing will bail…

Long-term capital gains are currently taxed at 20% and upon death there is tax-free step-up in basis, allowing heirs to only pay taxes on gains that occur after the original owner’s death. There’s now talk of raising long-term capital gains…

While clearly destructive, the US economy is proving surprisingly resilient against the Delta variant. August M-o-M retail sales rose a strong 0.7%, initial weekly unemployment claims just hit their two lowest readings since the pandemic, and manufacturing activity is steadily…

The Friday File: While there is great debate about why yawning occurs, it appears that brain weight and yawn duration are highly correlated and the number of cortical neurons, a measure of brain complexity and yawn duration are spectacularly correlated.…