Month: February 2021

The Friday File: Though wildly unproductive in the amount of meaningful legislation passed, the just finished 116th Congress resulted in members of Congress posting 1.57 million tweets and 680,000 Facebook posts, up from 1.03 million and 484,000 in the 114th.…

In 2020, Idaho enjoyed the highest percentage of net migration, with 70% inbound and 30% outbound, a net of 40%. SC followed at 28%, then OR at 26%, AZ and SD at 24%, and AL, FL, NC, and TN at…

While Producer Price Inflation is rising, since 1991 its correlation with core CPI is just 15%. Moreover, unemployment is high and global inflation is weak. Finally, while we are experiencing supply constraints, input prices have risen before. Recall that in…

While GDP will return to its pre-pandemic level in 21Q3, absent expansionary fiscal policy the labor market will take until 2024. Correcting for worker misclassification by the BLS boosts the reported unemployment rate from 6.1% to 6.9%. Correcting for the…

January is normally a weak month for home sales. But not this January. Thus, the seasonal adjustments that are always made to allow for month-to-month comparisons are not valid. For example, had last month’s sales occurred in October, the season…

The Friday File: While marijuana is increasingly considered harmless, there are unintended consequences. Comparing retail scanner data in counties located in CO, OR, and WA where recreational marijuana is legal to counties where it’s not, sales of high calorie foods…

January retail sales jumped a smoking 5.3% M-o-M and arrested a surprising three-month decline. This was the biggest increase since June’s 8% rise when the economy was exiting lockdown, and the fourth largest bounce since at least 1992. Spending rose…

If small changes in price lead to large changes in quantity demanded, think pizza, the item is elastic. Some goods, like gasoline, are inelastic. A change in that price does not alter the amount driven. Some things are infinitely inelastic,…

Since recordkeeping began in 1939, the 4.3 million net jobs created in 1946, the start of the post-WWII expansion, was tops. However, the recently passed $900 billion Covid-19 relief bill, rising vaccination rates, and now $1.9 trillion stimulus from the…

Total American Express cardholder spending (an admittedly well-heeled group) fell 15% in 20Q4 Y-o-Y, compared to 19% in 20Q3 Y-o-Y, and 34% in 20Q2 Y-o-Y. Travel and entertainment fell 65% in 20Q4 Y-o-Y, an improvement from -69% in 20Q3 Y-o-Y…