Archive for February 2020

The Friday File: Last Saturday, 34-year old Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals scored his 700th NHL goal, placing him 8th on the all-time list. More amazingly, he is currently 3rd in goal scoring this year, and at his current pace (and he shows no signs of slowing), in four years he’ll break Wayne Gretzky’s…

59% of Americans said they are financially better off now than they were a year ago, 20% said they were worse off, and 21% said things have not changed. 59% is the highest positive response rate ever recorded by Gallup, breaking the previous peak of 58% in 1999. Interestingly, 76% of Republicans say they are…

The average price paid for a new vehicle last year was $33,600, up from $32,500 in 2018, and the average new car payment is $566/month. Not surprisingly, new vehicle sales to buyers between 16 and 35 fell 4.5% last year, while it rose 1% for buyers over 56. Cars are more expensive because they are…

With France, Italy and Japan contracting, the UK and Germany flatlining, China’s GDP taking a sizable hit due to COVID-19 (along with airlines, energy companies, tourism, luxury goods, transportation and manufacturing), it’s hard to see 20Q1 US GDP growth exceeding 1%, half what it has been. Moreover, the virus is now in Japan and especially…

With COVID-19 fears pervasive, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.361% this morning, a shade below its prior low of 1.366% set in 2016, while the 30-year yield hit a new low of 1.821%. This suggests a global slowdown and very weak inflation. If the virus continues spreading, expect the Fed to…

The Friday File: The winner (from over 3,000 competitors) at the 144th edition of the Westminster Dog Show was Siba, a Standard Poodle from the Non-Sporting group. The other six finalists included a Whippet from Hounds, a Havanese from Toy, a Shetland from Herding, a Golden Retriever from Sporting, a Wire Fox Terrier from Terriers,…

A key question in 2020 will be whether the inevitable slowdown in job growth is primarily the result of a reduction in the supply of workers or a reduction in the demand for labor due to weaker business sentiment. If it’s the former, wage growth might re-accelerate, boosting inflation; that would be good. But if…

The Chinese COVID-19 virus will hurt US GDP four ways. First, Chinese tourists will not be arriving nor will they be spending money here. Second, US manufacturers dependent on China for critical raw materials and parts may soon have to close assembly lines. Third, imports from the US will sag. Fourth, the US dollar has…

In 1990, when the Baby Boomers median age was 35, they owned 21% of the nation’s wealth. In 2008, when Generation Xers median age was 35, they owned 9% of the nation’s wealth. While Millennials median age will not hit 35 until 2023, their share of the nation’s wealth will have to triple from its…

Usually when an economy faces an extreme drop in demand, like China is experiencing now, the standard government response is some combination of easier fiscal and monetary policy. But in China’s case these policies will not stop the ongoing factory closures and worsening material shortages spreading across the economy. Encouraging the purchasing of goods and…