Archive for November 2019

The Friday File: In addition to US politics becoming increasingly tribal, so is our shopping! While the CNN (Democrats), Fox (Republicans) viewership divide is well known, the NBA is now 50% more popular among Democrats than Republicans. By contrast, NASCAR is twice as popular among Republicans. Other Republican brands include GMC, Chick-fil-A, and Wrangler, which…

The first Thanksgiving was celebrated in 1621, and President Lincoln proclaimed Thanksgiving a national holiday on 10/3/1863. 96% of Americans celebrate Thanksgiving, and along the way we spend $550 million buying turkeys. The first Thanksgiving college football game took place in 1876; the first NFL game in 1920. My secret to not gaining weight; eat…

In 1940, the percentage of children who earned more than their parents by age 30 was 92%. The percentage fell to 80% by 1950, and from 1960-1975 it held at 60%. It’s since continued to fall and is now 50%. There are several reasons for the decline. GDP growth has slowed as our economy has…

While taxing billionaires is now very chic, the notion that they are the result of bad/failed government policy is wrong. It heavily depends on the competitiveness of the market. Google and Facebook are monopolists and earn excessive profits as competition has failed, moreover, those firms have hired many lobbyists to protect their advantage. By contrast,…

The Friday File: The average dollar bill lasts 5.8 years. The average $5 bill, 5.5 years, while the $10 bill lasts just 4.5 years, less than any other note. $20s average 7.9 years, $50 bills last a slightly longer 8.5 years. The longest lifespan, the C-note at 15 years. The Bureau of Printing and engraving…

If the US-China trade war does not worsen and President Trump doesn’t increase tariffs on Chinese imports on 12/15/19, the trade war’s negative impact on GDP here and China should end by 12/31/20. The cumulative reduction in Chinese GDP is likely to be about 0.75% or about $105 billion, and about 0.55%, or $115 billion…

With manufacturing, capital spending by firms, transportation, agriculture, and energy all weak, the relatively good October housing starts were particularly pleasing. Starts were up 8.5% Y-o-Y, are at their second-best level since 5/18, and single-family starts have been rising since May. Multifamily has been essentially flat for five years. YTD starts are still down -0.6%…

While the US economy looks to be holding up reasonably well, having grown at an annualized rate of 1.9% in 19Q3, it can expect no help from abroad. The #2 global economy, China, slowed further in October with industrial output and fixed investment doing poorly. Global #3, Japan, eked out just 0.2% annualized growth in…

In 1976, the estate tax applied to 7% of all descendants at a top rate of 70%. Today, just 0.07% of descendants owe money; a 99% decline! To reduce inequality, don’t impose confiscatory wealth taxes of 2% or more, tax inheritances like ordinary income subject to some reasonable exemption. As for the deceased having already…

The Friday File: Some days bulls are happy, some days bears are, last Tuesday the Dow disappointed both, it went nowhere. Monday it closed at 27691.4854488934 and Tuesday, it closed at 27691.4854488934; 0.000000000% change! Over the past 123 years, this has happened 167 times; just three time since 2000. It’s becoming increasingly rare as trades…