Archive for March 2019

The Friday File: A few months ago, Lindsey Vonn, 34, retired from competitive skiing. Statistically, she is the greatest women’s skier ever, ahead of the great Anna-Marie Moser-Proell of Austria. Her 82 World Cup victories place her second behind Ingemar Stenmark of Sweden. However, at 23, Coloradan Mikaela Shiffrin is already ranked 4th best all-time…

The January US trade deficit was $51.2 billion, down from $59.9 billion in December. Exports rose 0.9% to $207.3 billion; imports fell 2.6% to $258.5 billion. The deficit with China fell 14% to $33.22 billion, primarily because firms raced to get products into the US ahead of a threatened tariff increase that didn’t materialize. This…

Home prices in the swankiest parts of the most expensive cities are declining. In part it’s due to slowing wealth creation; fewer millionaires/year are being minted. Also, stronger capital controls have made it harder to ferry money out of China. Transaction taxes on foreigners have hurt; increase supply is also to blame. Also, trophy properties…

The Boeing 737 MAX accounts for about 25% of domestic aircraft production. If MAX production is halted, it would knock about 0.5%-point off quarterly annualized GDP growth. For context, 19Q1 GDP growth is currently expected to be 1.5%, ignoring Boeing. If Boeing keeps producing but temporarily can’t deliver the MAX, inventories will rise and GDP…

This past Friday the yield curve inverted; the 10-year rate fell below the three-month rate, the first time in over a decade. This is significant because an inversion has preceded each of the last seven recessions, often by years. Since 1965, there have been two inversions not followed by a recession. QE has made inversions…

The Friday File: About 500,000 vasectomies/year are performed in the US. The recuperative time is 2-3 days. Not surprisingly, Fridays are the most common day to have the procedure as it gives a weekend to recover. But some weekends are more equal than others. During the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, vasectomies…

Over the past several years, the Democratic and Republican parties have drastically realigned. The Democrats increasingly represent higher income, college educated, coastal voters. As such, how can they realistically advocate for tax increases? Similarly, the Republican party increasingly represents older, blue-collar, and less educated voters. With this sort of base, how can they call for…

With fears of growth downshifting, inflation weak, and all-important inflation expectations deteriorating, earlier today the Fed promised more patience and suggested there will be no rate hikes this year. I believe this is an overreaction. But, with rates already so low, the Fed is concerned that if we fall into a recession it will be…

In 2016, the labor force participation rate for men 25-54 was 88%, and by the end of 2018 it had risen to 89%. However, for 25-54-year-old women the rate rose twice as much, from 73.8%, to 75.8%. Driving this is growth in women-dominated sectors like healthcare and social services, and a large increase in the…

The state with the highest ratio of federal revenues received to federal taxes paid is KY at 2.35. They paid $30.1 billion but received $70.8 billion, a difference of $9,145/person. NM followed at 2.34, or $8,692/person. CT had the worst ratio, 0.74 as federal taxes paid were $55.5 billion, but they received just $41.1 billion…