Archive for December 2018

I wish to take this opportunity to thank you all for your ongoing interest in my daily economics blog. All of you enrich my life in many ways; I am deeply appreciative. I wish you and yours the best year ever in annualized seasonally risk adjusted terms. May it be a year of full employment,…

The Friday File: In only Wisconsin, West Virginia and South Carolina is it legal to own a kangaroo without a permit. 10 states including Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Texas, New Mexico, Idaho, Nevada and Washington, the last two of which also have no income tax, allow ownership with a permit. In the remaining…

Homelessness rose in 2018 to 552,830, up from 550,996 in 2017, and the trough of 549,928 in 2016. That said, as recently as 2007, homelessness totaled 647,258. The long run decline and recent rise are due to changes in unsheltered (vs. sheltered) homelessness. In 2007, it was 255,857, by 2015 it had declined to 173,268…

Each day the unfunded portion of government is closed, GDP will decline by $1.25 billion; a bit more than a twentieth of a percent a week; unfortunate but manageable. A big concern: Will those laid off get paid for the time they couldn’t work? An even larger concern: Will Congress raise the debt ceiling before…

Inflation, as measured by the Christmas Price Index, based on purchasing each day’s items once in “The Twelve Days of Christmas,” rose a scant 1.2% in 2018 to $39,094.93. Excluding the costliest item, seven swans-a-swimming at $13,125, will reduce the cost to $25,969.93. Conversely, purchasing all 364 items will cost you $170,609.46. In a good…

The Friday File: In 2017, the wealthiest 1% of the global population, 77 million people, was estimated to hold 50% of world wealth. Due to better data and estimates, it’s now estimated that they only hold 47% of global wealth; what a difference! To be in this group, your net worth must exceed $870,000. 31…

During the year ending 7/1/18, the US population grew by 2.02 million or 0.6%, the slowest pace since 1937, and now totals 327.2 million. The excess of births over deaths resulted in an increase of 1.04 million persons, while immigration accounted for an increase of 978,826 people, or 48.5% of all growth. The fastest growing…

Over the past year, the number of job openings has grown by 1.02 million. Over a third of these job vacancies are in accommodation and food service (200,000 more open jobs) and retail (147,000 more), both typically suited for entry-level positions. This suggests the tight labor market is allowing employees who might otherwise take restaurant…

Last week, British Prime Minister Theresa May survived a vote of no-confidence by a painfully lackluster score of 200 to 117. Worse, she promised not to lead the Tories into the next election, due no later than 2022. To now complete the fraught and consequential Brexit process by 1/21/19 as a lame-duck, lacking the confidence…

US Markets are jittery after suddenly realizing Europe and China have been slowing and that this will reduce US growth. That said, US 18Q4 growth should be a strong 3%, wage growth is at its best level in a decade, and retail sales are strong. For perspective, the GDP hit from the huge dot-com equity…