Archive for October 2018

If you eat enough candy, like anything else, it can be lethal. Given that the average fun-size candy bar has 9.3 grams of sugar and the average American weighs about 180 pounds, you would have to consume 5.4 pounds of sugar, or 262 fun-size pieces of candy at one sitting, to reach a dose that…

In 18Q3, the vendor most popularly expensed by business travelers in North America was Uber, accounting for 11% of all transactions. Starbucks followed with 4.09%, while Amazon was third at 4.05%. Delta, American Airlines, Lyft, United Airlines, Walmart, Shell and McDonald’s round out the top 10. National was the most used car rental; Hampton Inn…

At 3.5%, 18Q3 GDP growth was strong, but noticeably down from 4.2% growth in 18Q2. Household consumption grew a healthy 4%. Government spending rose a vigorous 3.3% and inventories rose by 2.1%, but both gains are transitory and thus short lived. Net exports fell 1.8%; investment in structures (residential and non-residential) fell 0.3%. 18Q4 GDP…

The Friday File: This is the last year Volkswagen will produce a version of its famed Beetle. Production of the original Bug ended in 2003; the longest automobile production run ever. There were a record 21 million produced, surpassing the previous record of 15 million held by the Ford Model T. The Beetle on the…

For the first time ever, EU bureaucrats rejected the budget of an EU nation, Italy. While markets suspect a Rome/Brussels compromise will be achieved with a lower deficit than the proposed 2.4%, the real problems are Italian banks. They hold substantial Italian government debt, and should fearful investors liquidate more Italian sovereign paper, bond values…

September new home sales came in at a dismal rate of 533,000, down 13.2% Y-o-Y. Worse, sales for June, July and August were all revised down. Sales are now up just 3.5% YTD. Sales in CY2018 may well be less than in CY2017. But, housing sales need to consistently fall about 20% Y-o-Y before a…

Tonight, if the Mega-Millions jackpot is not shared, the winner will enjoy the largest lotto prize in world history at $1.6 billion. Two changes created these huge jackpots; doubling of the price to $2/ticket and reducing the chance of winning from 1 in 258,890,850 to 1 in 302,575,350. This was done because of fear of…

On 8/31/18, there were 7.136 million job openings, well up from 6.044 million a year ago. At the same time, the number of unemployed persons on 8/31/18 numbered 6.234 million, well down from 7.127 million on 8/31/17. That is, a year ago, there were 1.18 unemployed persons/job opening, now there are 1.15 jobs/unemployed person! Prior…

The Friday File: In 2017, Americans spent $72 billion on pets. That is equal to the GDP of the 70th largest nation in the world, edging out Myanmar and Luxembourg. $30 billion went for food, $18 billion for veterinary care, $16 billion for supplies, $2 billion buying the pets, and $6 billion on miscellaneous stuff.…

Seasonally-adjusted September housing starts totaled a soft 1.201 million. But Y-o-Y, starts rose 3.7% and YTD starts are up 6.4%, which is OK. Beating CY2017 numbers will be very hard as 17Q4 starts ended strong. That said, while multifamily is flatlining, attention should be focused primarily on single-family. It looks poised to continue rising, albeit…