Archive for April 2018

Real GDP in 18Q1 grew at an annualized rate of 2.3%, beating expectations of 2%. This was the best Q1 growth since 2015 and keeps us on track for growth of at least 2.75% in 2018. It slid from 2.9% in 17Q4 due to post-hurricane declines in car purchases and home repairs. Growth was buoyed…

The Friday File: Earlier this week, the Duchess of Cambridge gave birth to a baby boy who is fifth in line to the British throne. The cost for the royal birth, in the top-notch Lindo Wing of St. Mary’s Hospital including the Deluxe room package – a shade under $8,000. Think it’s expensive? In the…

Recent tax reform has, among other things, reduced the tax advantages of charitable giving. Thus, such giving is expected to decline by about 4% from $390 billion/year to about $375 billion/year. The top 1% of taxpayers will be generally less impacted by these changes than other groups, and the wealthy give primarily to universities. By…

While interest rates have been profoundly low until quite recently, the winds of change are coming. The Fed is beginning to meaningfully reduce its balance sheet, and large federal deficits are starting to appear, both of which will increase the supply of Treasuries. Add to that a steadily weakening dollar, the expectation of faster GDP…

March housing starts were up 1.9% M-o-M, and 10.9% Y-o-Y, but single-family starts fell 3.7% M-o-M and rose just 5.2% Y-o-Y. The recent rise in starts is all due to multifamily activity! Since 10/16, single-family starts have risen marginally. However, multifamily starts steadily declined from 10/16 through 8/17, but have risen steadily since and are…

The IMF estimates advanced economies will grow 2.5% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019, up half a point each from their 10/17 report. US growth was boosted from 2.3% to 2.9% this year and 1.9% to 2.7% for 2019 due to powerful temporary fiscal stimulus. The IMF also noted that longer-term prospects for advanced economies…

The Friday File: The NBA introduced the 3-point shot in 1979/80. That year, 3-point shots were 3.1% of all shots. By 1990, it was 7.6%, it was 16.7% in 2000, and 22.2% in 2010. Then Stephen Curry changed everything. This season, 33.7% of shots were treys! Now, so many teams are shooting treys, Golden State…

Ignoring the 19% of Mexicans with no preference between the three presidential candidates facing off on 7/1/18, leftist populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of MORENO, leads comfortably with 48% of the vote, Ricardo Anaya of PAN follows at 26%, with Jose Antonio Meade of PRI at 18%. AMLO vows to put Trump “in his…

Usually the gap between GDP and potential GDP (what GDP would be if all economic resources were fully utilized) is very small. However, during 09Q2, the gap hit $935 billion; 6.5% of GDP. That was the largest gap since 82Q4 when it hit 7.9%. Since mid-2009 the gap has steadily shrunk and is now actually…

Non-inflation-adjusted farm income is projected to hit just $59.50 billion in 2018 due to lower crop and livestock prices. This will be its lowest level since 2006, when farm income was $57.44 billion, and is 7% lower than it was last year as the farm crisis enters year five. Farm income steadily rose from $50.68…