Archive for July 2017

The Senate Republican failure to pass a “skinny” Obamacare replacement means a revenue loss of probably $150 billion over a decade. Having already nixed the border adjustment tax means the loss of an additional $1 trillion over a decade. Absent this $1.15 trillion, cutting taxes and keeping it revenue neutral or close to it will…

The Friday File: At last, engineers have figured out how shoelace bows come undone! There are two forces at work. The to-and-fro movement of the leg and the impact of the shoe hitting the ground. Turns out neither force is strong enough alone to unravel the knot. These forces could theoretically tighten the bow, but…

While June housing starts were up 8.3% M-o-M, they were up only 2.1% Y-o-Y, and 6.0% YTD. More interestingly, YTD multifamily starts are flat, while single-family starts are up 10.75%, and they are more costly than multifamily. The 10.75% rise means 90,000 new single-family starts in 2017. At an average of $400,000/house, that’ll boost GDP…

While the VIX, which measures stock market volatility (also known as the Wall Street “fear gauge”), is at quarter-century lows, so what. Corporate profits are solid, inflation is miniscule, alternative investments aren’t very compelling and it appears central banks will keep the easy money spigots open longer. Moreover, increased index investing and quantitative/algorithmic investing, which…

Rhode Island is the latest state to finally see total employment exceed its pre-recession level. That leaves just Alabama, Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, Ohio, and Wyoming with employment levels in 6/17 below what they were in 2008 or before. By contrast, in five states, including Arkansas, California, Colorado, Tennessee, and Washington, the unemployment…

The upcoming required legislative increase in the debt ceiling may be a nasty battle. Republicans will require Democratic support, which will be legislatively costly, all but guaranteeing a bill that won’t be “clean” or void of concessions. To that end, Trump’s budget proposal that cuts billions from discretionary non-defense spending will probably be in play,…

The Friday File: 43% of women say knowing a person’s credit score would have an impact on their willingness to date someone; only 32% of men said the same. By education, 47% of college graduates say knowing the FICO score of a possible date matters compared to 29% for those with a high school diploma…

Opioid addiction (OA), including addiction to prescription painkillers and illicit narcotics (heroin), has surged 500% since 2010, while medications use to treat OA grew by just 65%. OA is up partly because 21% of Americans filled at least one opioid prescription last year and the amount of prescription opioids sold in the US has quadrupled…

For the first time, the US population under 10 is majority minority. Overall, 61.3% of the population is white, 17.8% are Hispanic, 12.4% are Black non-Hispanic, 5.7% are Asian, 2.1% are multiracial and 0.7% are Native American. In 2016, Nevada joined Hawaii, DC, CA, NM and TX as states that are majority minority. By 2020,…

Of the 170 deductions/exemptions/credits/exclusions, the six largest in FY2018 are: exclusion of employer contributions for medical insurance/care at $236 billion, preferential treatment of pension contributions at $200 billion, exclusion of owner-occupied rental income at $112.7 billion, corporate income held abroad at $112.6 billion, lower capital gains rates at $109 billion, and the mortgage interest deduction…